Behind a seven-game win streak, Tennessee won the SEC regular-season title and locked up the top seed in the conference tournament.
Kentucky has won six of seven, seemingly peaking at the right time. John Calipari’s five-out offense is cooking, as the Wildcats have scored 90-plus in four straight games.
But scoring against Tennessee is never as easy, and Calipari’s defense leaves much to be desired.
Still, the Wildcats need a win more than the Vols, and they have some schematic advantages that should lead to a cover.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction
(4 p.m. ET, CBS)
For all their defensive dominance, the Vols are a shaky transition defense.
They’re average in fast-break points per game allowed (8.8, sixth in SEC) and even worse on a per-possession basis (1.06 PPP allowed, 13th in SEC).
That doesn’t bode well against Kentucky, among the most prolific open-court offenses in the sport.
Kentucky leads the SEC in fast-break points per game (15.8) and ranks second in transition PPP (1.13). Only 13 teams nationally produce more transition possessions per game than the Cats’ 17.7.
So, in the prior head-to-head matchup, Kentucky produced 20 transition points on 18 opportunities (1.11 PPP) en route to 92 points against Tennessee’s vaunted defense.
At the minimum, the Cats can keep it close on transition buckets alone.
Unfortunately, Kentucky will have to play much better defensively than the last head-to-head matchup.
Tennessee runs a flex-motion offense designed to get Dalton Knecht open in space by running around off-ball screens and/or cutting to the basket.
Knecht was fine in the first meeting, scoring 16 on 5-for-14 (1-for-5) shooting. Instead, Zakai Zeigler and Josiah Jordan-James dominated with 52 combined points, and the Vols scored 29 points on 23 off-ball screen and cutting sets (1.26 PPP).
But I wouldn’t be surprised to see some regression in that area. The Wildcats are surprisingly adept at defending secondary actions, ranking among the top five SEC teams in cutting PPP allowed (1.15) and off-ball screen PPP allowed (.83).
So, I don’t expect Kentucky to flail as spectacularly against the flex-motion sets as in the original matchup.
This is especially true considering the situational and motivational angle. Kentucky is tied for second in the SEC with three other squads, so the SEC tournament seeding implications for the Wildcats are monstrous. Meanwhile, the Vols are locked into the top seed.
Although Tennessee is still fighting for NCAA Tournament seeding, the Vols still need a run in the SEC Tournament to lock up a top overall seed. I doubt a Q1 loss to Kentucky – which ranks 20th in NET – would move the needle.
And that motivational angle is negated by the revenge angle, as Kentucky would love to avoid a season series sweep.
Betting on College Basketball?
I’m betting UK keeps it close on Saturday. For what it’s worth, the Cats are 7-3 ATS on the road this year.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee pick
Kentucky +8.5 (-102, FanDuel)
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