South Carolina should have lost to Old Dominion in Week 1 but instead won, 23-19, despite being outgained in total yards, 305-288, in a game in which it forced four turnovers.
While the Gamecocks looked impressive in Week 2, a 31-6 victory over Kentucky, they generated a paltry 28 percent success rate, winning again in a game they forced two more turnovers.
Say what you want about LSU, but Garrett Nussmeier is a genuine Heisman candidate.
He’s 57-for-76 (75 percent) passing with 610 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception through two weeks, including a heroic 308-yard effort against USC in a heartbreaking loss.
I can’t reasonably expect South Carolina’s secondary, which ranked 87th in pass success rate allowed last year, to stop Nussmeier and Co.
Conversely, I feel OK about LSU’s defense in this matchup.
South Carolina switched to a rush-heavy offense this season (66.5 percent rush rate) behind dual-threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers and Arkansas transfer running back Raheim Sanders.
LSU’s secondary is atrocious, but the Tigers have decent front-seven talent behind stud linebacker Harold Perkins.
The overvalued Gamecocks are due for a loss, and LSU is due for a statement victory after that brutal one-possession, buzzer-beating, prime-time loss to USC two weeks ago.
The pick: LSU -6
Washington (-5.5) over Washington State (at Lumen Field)
Most projection systems make Washington a double-digit favorite in this rivalry game.
My numbers make the Huskies an 11-point favorite, mainly because the Cougars are overvalued after last week’s lucky victory over Texas Tech.
The Raiders outgained the Cougars by nearly 80 total yards (491 to 416) but lost by 21 thanks to four turnovers and three failed fourth-down conversions.
It also didn’t help that RB1 Tahj Boyd was unavailable.
Washington State enters this game overvalued, and the Cougars should be no match for coach Jedd Fisch and quarterback Will Rogers.
It’s hard to gauge the Huskies in the early season, given they’ve completely overhauled the coaching staff and roster from last year’s National Championship Game appearance.
But Fisch turned Arizona into an offensive powerhouse last year, and Rogers amassed more than 12,000 passing yards in four seasons at Mississippi State.
I’m betting he can carve up a questionable Washington State defense.
Indiana (-3) over UCLA
Indiana hired a stud head coach in Curt Cignetti, who wins wherever he goes.
Under Cignetti, James Madison ranked second nationally in havoc rate last year.
The up-and-coming coach brought a boatload of his defenders with him from JMU, and the overhauled Hoosier defense forced nine havoc plays against FIU in Week 1, including eight TFLs, four sacks and an interception.
Betting on College Football?
That will be a problem for UCLA, which looks lost offensively.
Conversely, Indiana’s new QB1, Kurtis Rourke, has been excellent through his first two games as a Hoosier (73 percent completion, 10.3 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT).
He dominated the MAC during his years at Ohio, and I believe he can play similarly well in the Big Ten with Cignetti’s guidance.
UCLA’s offense might get shoved in a locker Saturday, while Rourke should look competent enough in a decisive Hoosier victory.
Last week: 1-2. Oklahoma State (L), Iowa State (W), Oregon (L)
2024 season: 2-4.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
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