The Virginia Cavaliers should not be in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
The ’Hoos rank 44 spots below St. John’s in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings, yet the committee left the Red Storm out, giving the Big East just three entrants.
Specifically, the Cavaliers shouldn’t be in the tournament because they can’t score. Tony Bennett’s blocker-mover offense regressed to new levels of pathetic this season, failing to reach 50 points in four of the regular season’s final five games.
Of course, Bennett’s pack-line defense, which protects against penetration, is still among the nation’s best, but Colorado State can circumvent it.
Head coach Niko Medved is an elite game-planner and schemer who will fully stretch Bennett’s defensive script.
Colorado State vs. Virginia prediction
(9 p.m. ET, truTV)
He’ll likely try to run secondary actions around the perimeter, where Virginia is vulnerable. The pack line is an inherently compact scheme, so the Cavaliers rank sub-270th nationally in 3-point rate allowed.
And he’ll likely leverage Isaiah Stevens as much as possible.
Stevens is among the nation’s best playmaking point guards (seven assists per game, 40 percent assist rate). He’s particularly elite at finding rim-running cutters, with Colorado State ranking 20th nationally in cutting frequency (10.7 percent of possessions) and third in cutting PPP (1.46).
Betting on March Madness 2024?
The Cavaliers’ pack line is a good cut-denial defense, but they’re weak at defending cutters on a per-possession basis (1.29 cutting PPP allowed, 322nd nationally).
Elite point guards can dribble-penetrate and unpack the ’Hoos, and I expect Stevens to do that Tuesday.
And it wouldn’t be surprising to see UVA fail to reach 40 points.
THE PLAY: Colorado State -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
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