One of Mathieu Darche’s most important decisions this summer isn’t a decision at all, but a question that could prompt multiple: When the Islanders’ general manager pulls up his team’s depth chart, is Mat Barzal slotted as a right wing or a centerman?
Surely, no matter what the answer is, Barzal likely will play both positions at various points during the season depending on need.
That’s not the point.
The point is that where the Islanders want Barzal playing has a cascading effect on their offseason.
It’s the hinge point as to whether they view themselves as having enough depth to trade a center, or need to go get one instead.
If the perfect-world scenario for Darche is to keep Barzal on Bo Horvat’s right wing — out of his natural position but a spot where the eye test and advanced numbers alike show both players accessing the best versions of themselves over the past two seasons — then the Islanders find themselves with four bottom-six centers, and needing someone who can play on their second line.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who stepped into the 2C spot out of need after the Islanders dealt away Brock Nelson at the trade deadline, never looked like a fit there.
Granted, by that point in the season, the Islanders were banged-up and nearly everyone was playing up a line higher than would have been ideal, so you can put a caveat on the data.
Still, Pageau was rolling along pre-trade deadline with a superb 55.76 expected goals percentage, 54.51 corsi for percentage and 56.01 goals for percentage at five-on-five, per Evolving Hockey.
Post-deadline, his numbers fell off a cliff: 50.15 expected goals percentage, 49.83 goals for percentage, 46.29 corsi for percentage.
When you go further down the depth chart, similar issues abound.
Casey Cizikas, Kyle MacLean and Calum Ritchie — assuming the 20-year-old Ritchie starts next season in the NHL and not the AHL — would all be well-suited to center the fourth line.
Cizikas’ numbers improved post-deadline last year when he became the 3C, but that had as much to do with finally getting to play down the middle as anything else — needing to play wing for most of the year was a misadventure the Islanders would do well not to repeat
And, whether Barzal is at center or not, at least one of those three would need to be moved out of position as things stand right now.
Cizikas’ 2024-25 season shows the risk inherent there.
It’s true, and a cliché that it’s easier to move a center to wing than vice versa.
Still, the Islanders have simultaneous problems here: too many centers and no way of slotting everyone in their ideal positions.
One potential shortcut could be trading Pageau, whose name has biannually popped up in the rumor mill for the past few years.
With one year left on his deal at $5 million and a 16-team no-trade clause, Pageau — who proved last season he still has a lot left in his tank and can help a team immensely in the right role — would have some value if made available.
Darche has seemed reluctant to undergo a huge roster makeover in his first summer in the job, but whether or not dealing a 32-year-old player on an expiring deal who would be a prime candidate to get moved at the trade deadline anyway constitutes a major swing is in the eye of the beholder.
It’s a safe guess, however, that the Islanders are not comfortable playing any of Cizikas, Ritchie or MacLean on the second line to start the season.
So if they’re moving Pageau, it means there’s a level of comfort splitting up Horvat and Barzal to start the season, even with the success they’ve achieved together.
That, or Darche believes an extra $5 million could buy him someone to solve the problem on July 1.
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