Team USA wasn’t expected to have to deal with Sweden until the semifinals, but Slovakia’s shocking triumph in Group B threw a wrench into the system, complicating the Yanks’ path to the Gold Medal Game in the process.
Sweden has been disappointing to this point, but they were the consensus third-favorite — and a clear one, at that — before the puck was dropped.
That makes this an interesting betting riddle for punters to solve:
Was Sweden overrated coming into Milan? Or are we overreacting to how they looked in what was easily the toughest group of the tournament?
The betting market is siding with the former, as the Americans are -250 favorites at DraftKings for Wednesday’s quarterfinal.
USA vs. Sweden odds, prediction
It feels like we have a better idea of where Sweden is as a team right now than Team USA.
The Americans got through Group C unscathed, but they were not facing a murderers’ row and they did have to endure some hairy moments.
They were tied, 1-1, against Latvia after the first period, and they fell behind Denmark, 2-1, in their second game.
The Stars & Stripes put together their best performance against Germany in a 5-1 win Sunday, but one terrific performance against this schedule does feel a little disappointing, especially with how Canada looked in Group A.
It sounds nitpicky, but even Team USA’s coaching staff and players felt they were a little underwhelming in the group stage. They have another level.
The same is true of Sweden, though.
The Swedes were messy in their opener against Italy, the worst team in the tournament, got blown out by their bitter rivals, Finland, and then gave up a pivotal late goal to Slovakia, making a 5-3 win feel like a loss.
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Sweden did settle some nerves in a 5-1 win over Latvia in the qualifying round, but they’ll need to take a massive step forward if they’re going to pull the upset on Wednesday.
The common theme following Sweden around has been shoddy goaltending and a lack of finishing.
Those things can self-correct at any given time, but they could also tank a good team in a short-form tournament like this.
The Americans have not painted a Picasso in Milan, either, and it is a little concerning that they have yet to face a stiff test yet, while the Swedes have played two strong teams and an elimination game already.
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That said, the stylistic matchup tilts heavily towards the Americans.
Given their issues in goal, and the fact that they don’t have the scoring punch that the Americans possess, the best path to success for Sweden is in a low-event game.
Team USA, on the other hand, will like its chances in a game with more fireworks, as they’ll trust their goaltender to be a difference-maker and they’ll bet on their wealth of elite scoring talent to make the most of the chances they create.
I think the best path to value in this contest is to build a same-game parlay with Team USA to win, along with the Over 6.5 goals.
In addition, I like the value on Jack Hughes to get on the scoresheet.
The Devils star has looked like the MVP-caliber player we saw before his injury a few months ago, but he’s still flying below the radar behind Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel and the Tkachuk Brothers when it comes to prop prices.
The Play: Team USA moneyline (-275, Fanatics) + Over 6.5 goals (+100, Fanatics) | SGP (+160) | Jack Hughes to score 1+ goal (+350)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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