We are told that the house always wins. We are told that you can never win at gambling. But what goes unspecified is that those adages only apply to most situations — but not all.
Specifically, the casino floor has clean, fixed odds on table games. The house’s mathematical edge is inarguable and will inevitably win over time. But with sports betting, the math is limited and flimsy.
That gray area is even more pronounced for outcomes away from the playing field — such as the NFL draft, MVP award, etc. When it comes to decisions made by human beings, the market is extremely soft, which I capitalized on just 10 days ago. Oddsmakers are vulnerable because their built-in hold percentage does not outweigh the variance and unknowns.
Right now, you can wager on whether a team will make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff that will be revealed this Sunday.
Yes, this weekend’s conference title games will impact the field, but ultimately, it will come down to the decisions of human beings.
We will glean a lot Tuesday night, when the 13-member committee reveals its penultimate rankings following last weekend’s upsets. Fundamentally, this is a guessing game. Unlike craps or roulette, the house has absolutely zero advantage on bettors. They do not know what the committee will say when it convenes. They literally have no more expertise than anyone else. And that is the potential beauty of exploiting the situation.
I firmly believe Miami’s DraftKings odds of +800 to make the playoff and 300/1 to win the national championship as of Monday afternoon are completely out of whack.
By no means is it a guarantee, but I think the playoff odds should be closer to +250.
I am of the belief that the Hurricanes will reach the playoff if SMU defeats Clemson in Saturday’s ACC title game. (The Mustangs are favored by 2.5 points).
For the most part, 11 of the 12 spots are earmarked. The last at-large bid will likely come down to Miami, SMU (if it loses to Clemson), Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina. I believe many so-called experts — betting and TV — are wrongly assuming the SEC brand will get deference.
The 10-2 Hurricanes have some weak schedule metrics, but they were also ranked sixth last week. I do not believe the committee will drastically downgrade them for a four-point road loss.
Alabama has -145 odds to reach the playoff as of Monday, but I doubt the committee will reward a team that just got rolled 24-3 by unranked Oklahoma. The three-loss Crimson Tide, who no longer have Nick Saban’s influence and cachet, have a weaker case than the odds suggest.
Betting on College Football?
When it comes to long-shot bets, I do not expect to win them all. I just intend to seize value, and that’s what we have with Miami.There is too much noise and assertive babble by talking heads. We have no baseline for this chaos, given it’s the first year of the 12-team playoff.
Regardless if the wager wins, +800 makes a great deal of sense.
BET: Miami to make College Football Playoff (+800, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the sports betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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