Luis Gil has been skating on thin ice thus far in 2025.
The Yankees’ starter has posted a solid 3.31 ERA through his seven starts after returning from a right lat strain he suffered during the spring.
But he’s certainly ridden his luck to get to that number.
Gil has been worse in just about every way compared to his 2024 season, which saw him win the American League Rookie of the Year, and it’s only a matter of time before regression catches up with him if he keeps pitching this way.
In 35 ⅓ innings, Gil has walked a ridiculous 23 batters — or 5.83 per nine innings.
His strikeouts are down significantly, dropping from more than 10 per nine innings in 2024 to 7.64 this season.
Already a fly-ball pitcher, Gil is now getting batters to hit it on the ground just 24.8 percent of the time, which would be the lowest rate in baseball among qualified pitchers.
That hasn’t translated into more home runs than usual, though.
Gil’s home runs per fly ball rate is at just four percent, which is sure to rise over the long term.
Gil’s last start against the Red Sox was a microcosm of his 2025 season, allowing just one earned run despite walking five and giving up four hits with three strikeouts across five innings.
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Pitching out of jams and batted ball fortune can’t last forever.
I’m betting Gil’s luck will run out sooner rather than later, starting with his second 2025 start against Boston on Friday night.
The play: Luis Gil Over 2.5 runs (+114, DraftKings) | Under 4.5 strikeouts (-116) | SGP (+218)
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
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