Citi Field generally plays like a pitcher’s park, holding MLB’s fifth-lowest Park Factor over the past three seasons (97), including the second-lowest double factor (86).
Throw in cloudy skies and neutral wind, and BallParkPal’s Weather Model projects a -13 percent Run Factor for Saturday’s Mets vs. Braves game — e.g., expect 13% less scoring than your typical MLB game.
Behind this weather projection, BallParkPal’s Game Simulation model projects just 6.4 runs on Saturday in Queens.
I’m trusting that projection and betting the Under.
While starting pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Tylor Megill are young and mercurial, both are high-ceiling arms.
Schwellenbach is among the better command pitchers in the game (5 percent walk rate, 108 Location+), while Megill has nasty stuff (28 percent strikeout rate, 107 Stuff+) behind a hard, upper 90s fastball.
Both pitchers have ERAs close to five, but both have expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) marks under four, indicating positive regression for both guys — i.e., the pitchers in this matchup are undervalued.
The Mets’ offense has been red-hot lately, but I think they’re hitting slightly above their head.
On the contrary, the Braves’ lineup continues to underperform without Ronald Acuña Jr. at the top of the order.
I also like both bullpens.
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The Braves rank third in reliever expected FIP this season (3.66), while the Mets rank fifth (3.77).
Over the past 30 days, both units have strikeout rates over 30 percent and SIERAs under three.
Ultimately, I expect a low-scoring ballgame in Queens on Saturday, similar to the 3-2 extra-innings thriller we saw on Thursday, where both teams combined for only 10 hits.
The play: Mets-Braves Under 8.5 runs (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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