As the Red Sox flirt with the AL Wild Card threshold, Nick Pivetta gets the first go at helping them gain ground in a pivotal series opener against the Orioles on Thursday at Camden Yards.
Since returning as a permanent piece of the rotation this year, the veteran staple has maintained consistency from the success he found in the bullpen last year as he fights through a one-year contract.
In somewhat of a renaissance year for the Red Sox, the key to Pivetta’s reliability is his comfort with the strike zone.
Pivetta ended 2023 with a career-high 31.1 percent strikeout rate and is looking to challenge that mark at 29.9, propelling him into the top nine percent of pitchers, according to Statcast.
The 31-year-old averages exactly 6½ strikeouts per start and more than 11 per nine innings.
He’s cashed on the Over for that line in four of his last six starts, including three 10-strikeout performances.
Pivetta hasn’t faced Baltimore yet this season, though he took them for 10 strikeouts in a seven-inning gem when he last started against them on Sept. 23, 2023.
The Orioles were certainly not the product they are now throughout the entirety of Pivetta’s career, but for what it is worth, he has hurled 6.92 strikeouts per game in 12 games started.
Baltimore has an aggressive lineup, swinging on almost half of all pitches.
The Orioles don’t whiff at a high rate, but Pivetta should force some hands with his fastball velocity remaining in his career-best range of 94 mph.
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His home-away splits favoring the road (3.76 ERA) complemented with a key matchup to prove his worth in pending contract negotiations gives me incentive to trust Pivetta on Thursday.
THE PLAY: Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (FanDuel)
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