On the heels of the College Football Playoff committee’s latest rankings — and the subsequent debates — we should all be pseudo experts by now on how a point spread is not the ultimate arbiter of a team’s worth. However, money talks and thus betting odds carry a lot of weight.
A spread like we have on “Monday Night Football” inevitably puzzles casual bettors. How can the 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals be 5.5-point road favorites, even if the Dallas Cowboys are relegated to a backup quarterback?
Bengals vs. Cowboys Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -5.5 (-108) | -230 | o49.5 (-112) |
| Cowboys | +5.5 (-112) | +190 | u49.5 (-108) |
Oddsmakers are stubborn. They barely deviate from their power rankings without significant occurrences. Narrow, one-score losses to good teams like the Chiefs, Chargers, Commanders, Steelers and Ravens (twice) do not qualify as such.
I spoke with two oddsmakers and two professional bettors who all regard Cincy as a top-10 team in their power ratings. That means there are only about seven or so other teams that would be favored over the Bengals on a neutral field.
That’s just how it works in the betting world. Sports fans will subscribe to narratives about bad teams finding ways to lose and other clichés. However, the experts that dictate the odds focus on box scores and metrics.
The Bengals have just a 4-8 record against the spread (ATS), so perhaps the experts are overvaluing Cincy, although their losses are almost all justifiable.
Dare we incorporate the “strength of schedule” metric?
Betting on the NFL?
I do like the Bengals laying the points.
Dallas obviously looked a lot more competent on Thanksgiving, but they also faced the lowly Giants. For all of Cincy’s woes, the Cowboys are 4-7-1 ATS. So the Bengals aren’t exactly facing a team that is surpassing expectations, which suggests this is a fair point spread.
Plus, all four Bengals covers have come as a favorite. Overall, they are 4-4 ATS as a favorite, 3-0 as a road favorite and 5-1 ATS on the road.
This feels like a spot for Cincy to get right and snap its three-game skid.
BET: Bengals -5.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the sports betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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