As we often hear, the NBA playoffs are about adjustments within a series.
Thus, sports bettors must learn to anticipate them and understand how they will impact the betting market and potentially offer value.
The Pacers delivered yet another improbable comeback to steal home-court advantage in the NBA Finals. The Thunder are now 11-point home favorites in Game 2 with an Over/Under total of 228.5.
I expect Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault to change his starting lineup and revert to the one he used all postseason, after he mysteriously benched center Isaiah Hartenstein in favor of Cason Wallace. In fact, the double-big lineup of Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren didn’t log a single minute together, after each had started every game this postseason.
The move looked wise in the first half, forcing 19 turnovers. Daigneault afterward said the smaller Wallace provided more defensive flexibility against guards Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard.
Though that logic makes sense, it also allowed a poor rebounding Pacers team to dominate the glass with a 56-39 edge. Indiana also finished with 13 offensive boards, which is their most this postseason. For context, the Pacers ranked third worst in rebounds per game and rebounding percentage throughout the regular season.
The glass was supposed to be an Indiana weakness and the relatively inexperienced Daigneault unnecessarily and inexplicably made it an advantage.
I think the coach realizes the mistake and starts Hartenstein. Even if that adjustment does not occur, he still figures to play him more than the 17 minutes he logged in Game 1. Even still, Hartenstein managed to grab nine rebounds in that limited play.
Betting on the NBA?
So any way you slice it, Hartenstein’s rebounds prop of 6.5 feels too low. OKC needs his presence, especially because Holmgren seems allergic to rebounds lately. The 7-footer has gone under his rebound prop in six straight games.
I am 46-40-1 ATS in this Post sports section and my next play is Hartenstein Over 6.5 rebounds in Game 2.
BEST BET: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 6.5 rebounds (-165, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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