The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 6 slate.
Sunday
Jets (+7.5) over Broncos
Hold your nose spot of the week.
It’s London, early-morning NFL where I’m looking to back an underdog after a embarrassing defeat. With everyone selling the Jets, I’ll buy. The Jets should to run the ball on at least 60 percent of their plays Sunday.
My model projects a score of 23.45 to 15.97, but that also implies under 43.5. I’ll take the Jets to cover in a lower scoring game.
Browns (+5.5) over STEELERS
Dillon Gabriel looked serviceable enough for me in his first start. The Browns’ defense has the ability to hold the Steelers down long enough to keep their offense in it. Pittsburgh is allowing 5.7 yards per play, while the Browns are allowing an NFL-best 4.4 yards per play.
Cardinals +8 over COLTS
Kyler Murray is far from my favorite quarterback, but I expect him to play this weekend against what looks like a juggernaut Colts squad. If Murray is unable play, I’d favor the Colts by nine points. With Murray in the lineup, I see it closer to seven-points. Quietly, Arizona’s defense is No. 8 in DVOA and No. 9 against the run.
Chargers -4.5 over DOLPHINS
Both teams are dealing with injuries here, but I’ll take the better of the two quarterbacks with a rock solid defense that is still performing pretty well. On the year, the Chargers are allowing just five yards per play, the eighth-best number in the NFL.
Miami is allowing 6.6 (second-worst) in its past three games and, yes, one of those games was against the Jets. My model has the projected score at 27.43 to 19.89.
Patriots -3.5 over SAINTS
Both teams are probably on a high right now after winning big games last week.
I suspect that the Saints will come crashing down as they needed five horrific turnovers just to get the win against the Giants in a game they once trailed, 14-3.
The Patriots’ defense may have turned it up last week against the Bills, as they’ve allowed just 5.1 yards per play in their last three, which ranks top 10 in the league, and they have Christian Gonzalez back.
PANTHERS +3 over Cowboys
My model has the projected score at 25.68 to 24.61, so you’re getting a decent line on the Panthers. The Cowboys are coming off smashing the Jets, but I just can’t buy high on Dallas in this spot.
Dallas’ defense is No. 31 in the NFL, while the Panthers are No. 19 and improving each week. [Uncle] Rico Dowdle revenge game!
Seahawks -1 over JAGUARS
Short week for the Jaguars after they literally fell into a win Monday against the Chiefs. Jacksonville has the most turnovers forced in the NFL, a generally considered flukey occurrence. Seattle is second in the league in net yards per play and it was extremely unlucky to lose to Tampa Bay last week.
Rams -7.5 over RAVENS
With Lamar Jackson playing, my model has the Ravens at +2 against the Rams right now. Even 5.5 points isn’t enough to get me to bite on Baltimore. The Rams are third in nets yards per play and fifth in yards per play allowed. The Rams are one of the best teams in the NFL and should come in highly motivated to get a win Sunday.
RAIDERS -4 over Titans
I believe in Geno Smith while the world writes him off. The Titans are 31st in the league in DVOA against the run and 24th against the pass. If the Raiders don’t win this game by at least a touchdown, Pete Carroll will be in for some tough conversations.
Bengals +14 over PACKERS
Joe Flacco should inject some much needed juice into the Bengals’ offense after Jake Browning became a turnover machine. My model has this game as a 10-point spread and I think that’s a better line. Turnovers remain a flukey stat and Flacco should help in that department.
49ers +3 over BUCCANEERS
Everyone loves Baker Mayfield, and they should, but how about some love for Mac Jones? Jones has looked every bit of a first round pick and is the No. 18-rated quarterback in the NFL right now, per Pro Football Focus. The 49ers are No. 16. in DVOA, while the Bucs are No. 18. San Francisco wins outright.
Lions +2.5 over CHIEFS
Detroit is No. 1 in DVOA right now, they are the best team in the league. And I get them as underdogs? Yes, please. Kansas City is coming off a bizarre loss to Jacksonville but it’s not all that concerning of a defeat. Still, I’ll trust Goff and the Lions to win a shootout where they drawn out the clock for the final quarter.
Monday
FALCONS +4.5 over Bills
A good matchup on Monday night, but I’ll buy a bit lower on the Bills after the loss to New England. The Bills and Falcons lead the NFL in time of possession this year, so the Under is probably a good bet here. Expect a tight run-first game where both teams run the ball down each other’s throats. My issue for the Bills is they are No. 30 against the run in DVOA.
COMMANDERS -4.5 over Bears
Jayden Daniels is that dude and the Bears’ defense can’t stop a nosebleed. The Bears have the No. 23 defense in DVOA, giving up a pitiful 6.7 yards per play. It should be a spot for Caleb Williams to get competitive and try to hold his spot as the No. 1 overall pick, but I’m not betting on it.
Last week: 4-9
This season: 29-42
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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