NFL Week 13 early predictions, lines: Best bets, picks to target

Big favorites didn’t do much in Week 12 and I’m not so sure that that will change in Week 13.

Two favorites ahead of a pivotal Week 13 are of 10 points or more in this strange week that features NFL games on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, Sunday, and Monday.

All 32 teams will be active as bye weeks come to a close for this week before resuming in Week 14. It’s a loaded schedule for football fans.

So prepare to enjoy your Turduken, cranberry sauce, stuffing, and all the other classics with some closing line value as an extra special dessert.

NFL Week 13 lines, odds

Week 13 early predictions

Packers +2.5 @ Lions

The Lions are generally money at home, but it’s the Packers’ defense that really makes me circle Green Bay here.

Defenses usually travel on the road and the Lions haven’t looked great for consecutive weeks.

Aaron Schatz’s FTN DVOA numbers have the Packers and Lions at a deadheat in it’s game projections.

I suspect that money comes in on Green Bay. Their defense is allowing 4.6 yards per play compared to the Lions, who are giving up 5.1 and just allowed Jameis Winston to look like a 2026 starter.

Betting on the NFL?

Giants (+7.5) @ Patriots

If not for a terrible interception returned for a touchdown thrown by Joe Flacco, the Patriots likely would have lost to the Ja’Marr Chase-less Bengals.

New England is among the most fraudulent teams in the NFL given where DVOA has them vs. their record.

The Patriots are 17th in total DVOA, behind the likes of the Chargers, Jaguars, and Steelers. Just because they are 9-2 and the Giants are 2-10 doesn’t mean that money won’t come in on Big Blue.

That’s all we’re looking for here: the line to move to -6.5, then hope to land a successful middle position.

Being that this game is a Monday night affair, there’s more than enough time for Jaxson Dart to stroll out onto the field with a few hype videos and dance moves to sway the betting public into hammering the Giants and forcing the sportsbooks’ hand.

Even if Dart doesn’t play and you’re stuck with a Giants +7.5 ticket, Jameis Winston is a formidable enough opponent that Big Blue could spring the upset against the Patriots’ No. 27-ranked defense (DVOA) against the pass.

Raiders (+10) vs. Chargers

Chip Kelly took the fall for the Raiders having the worst offensive line in football, but the Chargers are just as bad, if not worse, up front.

Pro Football Focus ranks the Chargers No. 32 in the NFL upfront, while the Raiders have the 31st-ranked offensive line.

For the same reason that I was backing the Titans +13.5 against the Seahawks, I’m targeting the Raiders here.

The total for this game is 41.5 at the time of writing. In order for the Chargers to cover, you basically are going to need a 27-13 final in order to get a Chargers cover.

That’s a bit too specific for me and I think this line closes around 7.5.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.