The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 16 slate
SUNDAY
Eagles -7 over COMMANDERS
Many people did not watch the Giants vs. Commanders game last week, good for you. I did, and those two teams have called it a season. Washington is starting Marcus Mariota and their is playing terribly right now. At one point, they were top 12 in defensive DVOA, but have plummeted down to No. 27. No chance I’m taking Washington here. Eagles roll.
BEARS +1 over Packers
I would bet the Packers if they were an underdog at the time of writing, but I’ll take the points assuming this line doesn’t flip. Chicago gave the Packers everything they could handle in Green Bay a few weeks ago, and now they’re without their best player, Micah Parsons, and many others are banged up. I’ll take the Bears to snag a home victory here in a tightly contested matchup.
SAINTS -5.5 over Jets
New Orleans is playing legitimately well while the Jets are a shell of themselves. Gang Green is missing so many pieces while Brady Cook continues to start under center. The Jets have the 31st ranked defense in DVOA and are allowing a terrible 6.3 yards per play in their last three games (bottom-five). Tyler Shough is playing well, take the Saints.
GIANTS +3 over Vikings
The real bet to make here is Giants win the first half with the hope that they can actually hold onto a lead. Big Blue is 9-5 against the spread in the first quarter but are terrible in the second half, blowing leads left and right. My model likes the Giants here and while I’m not exactly chomping at the bit to back Big Blue, I’ll give them a whirl here regardless.
BROWNS +10.5 over Bills
In Cleveland, the Browns have the chance to flex it’s muscles on both offense and defense. While Buffalo has played really well recently, their run defense is among the worst in the NFL and Cleveland’s defense allows the fewest yards per play in the NFL at the Dawg Pound. Ride the Browns at home.
Chargers +2.5 over COWBOYS
Not much value here, my model has the Chargers as two point underdogs. I’ll take the team that’s still taking things seriously here, though, as the Cowboys are now out of the playoff hunt. Los Angeles’ defense has been playing well (4.4 YPP allowed, third best last three games) while the Cowboys have fallen off yet again. 6.5 YPP allowed last three games, third worst.
TITANS +3 over Chiefs
Do we really expect Chris Jones and Travis Kelce to give full effort in a meaningless game on Sunday? I don’t. The Chiefs lost 38-0 last year on the last game of the regular season to the Broncos before the playoff push. I honestly exepct a similar result this week even against the Titans.
DOLPHINS +4 over Bengals
I’m not sure that Quinn Ewers is any good, but I’ve also never been a Tua Tagovailoa supporter. My model, with Tagovailoa starting, has the Dolphins favored by one at home. I don’t think Tagoaviloa is worth five points to the spread and frankly he could be worth less than a field goal. I’ll take Miami plus the points.
Buccaneers -3 over PANTHERS
Mike Evans being back and having 10 days to prepare for this matchup is the angle I’m targeting. Tampa Bay hasn’t played great by any stretch of the imagination but the thought process is Baker Mayfield also gets a mini bye week to get healthy after clearly playing injured. My model has a projected score of 26.35 to 22.91 in favor of the Buccaneers.
BRONCOS (-3) over Jaguars
My model has the Broncos as 3.5-point favorites and I love how their defense is playing. Denver is the No. 7 overall DVOA team while Jacksonville is No. 9. I do feel that the Jaguars have taken advantage of some bad teams of late, while the Broncos are battle tested now.
CARDINALS (+3) over Falcons
My model loves Arizona this week despite the poor play of late against two of the league’s best teams. Before they were blasted by the Texans and Rams, the Cardinals had some close lossesto the Buccaneers and Packers wtih even a victory over the Cowboys. My projected scored for this matchup is 24.6 to 22.72 in favor of the underdog Cardinals.
Betting on the NFL?
LIONS (-7) over Steelers
Bad spot for the Steelers who dump the ball off too frequently. Detroit has problems with teams that air the ball out and the Lions will feast on the dump-off machine Aaron Rodgers. The Lions give up four yards per carry, the eighth least in the NFL. All over Detroit this weekend.
Raiders (+14.5) over TEXANS
The Raiders get Geno Smith back this week at least. Even though the Raiders are probably the worst team in the NFL, I will perhaps foolishly back them at a big number. My model has this game at 20 to 12.53, so you’re getting just below the key number of 14 as your value. It’s a hold your nose spot that the Raiders can score a little against a tough defense.
Patriots (+3) over RAVENS
This line makes no sense to me and the model agrees. The projected score of this game is 25.19 to 23.81 with the Patriots favored. New England’s defense is playing better (4.9 YPP allowed last three games). Lamar Jackson doesn’t look healthy enough for my liking. Patriots win outright in a game that matters a ton for both teams.
MONDAY
COLTS (+6) over 49ers
With Daniel Jones, the Colts would be about a coin-flip with the 49ers, so the question then becomes is the downgrade to the 44-year-old Phillip Rivers worth six points? The Colts played differently last week, opting for a field position game and don’t over expose the veteran. For that reason we’ll take the Colts.
Last week: 6-10
Season: 97-103-4
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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