We were so close to our second consecutive perfect week.
Unfortunately, Trey McBride wasn’t able to get more than 60.5 receiving yards.
We have still picked seven of the last eight correctly, so I am feeling good heading into the final two weeks of the regular season.
As always, we will focus on the Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon games for our Week 17 PrizePicks selections.
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) more than 0.5 rushing + receiving touchdowns
Before we get into why I like C-Mac to score a touchdown this week, I want to point out that this particular projection has a non-standard payout.
The odds are slightly worse than most of the projections on PrizePicks.
McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in every game but two.
Dating back to last season, he has scored at least one touchdown in 19 of his last 21 regular-season games.
He’s a huge weapon in the 49ers’ running and passing games, and he plays in one of the best offenses in the NFL.
After losing to the Ravens on Christmas, the Niners will look to bounce back against the Commanders, who have allowed the most points per game (30.2) of any team in the NFL.
Gus Edwards (Ravens) more than 40.5 rushing yards
With Keaton Mitchell out of the lineup last week, Justice Hill out-snapped and out-touched Edwards. Though that’s not ideal, it was likely a matchup-based decision by the coaching staff.
The Ravens were able to move the ball at will through the air against the Niners.
This week, expect them to lean more on the ground game.
The matchup sets up well for the run (Miami is 21st in DVOA) and having success on the ground will help keep the Dolphins’ potent offense on the sideline.
Expect Edwards to see double-digit carries and don’t be surprised if he has 15-plus carries if the Ravens are playing with a lead; they are 3.5-point favorites, which sets up for a potential positive game script.
Rashee Rice (Chiefs) more than 63.5 receiving yards
A combination of his talent and the number of drops that keep piling up for the other wide receivers in Kansas City’s offense has led to more playing time for Rice.
Over the last two games, he has essentially turned into an every-down receiver where he’s running a route on almost all of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks.
There’s no doubt he has turned into Mahomes’ No. 1 option (yes, even ahead of Travis Kelce).
Rice has seen at least nine targets in each of the last five games, and during that stretch, he has averaged 7.6 receptions and 78.2 yards.
He draws an exploitable matchup this week against the Bengals, who have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
Betting on the NFL?
Chase McLaughlin (Buccaneers) more than 1.5 field goals made
McLaughlin hooked us up with this same projection last week, so we are going right back to the well.
The C-Mc well isn’t quite as deep as the C-Mac one, but it’s not too far behind.
McLaughlin has converted 26 of 28 field goal attempts this season and has made at least two field goals in 11 of 15 games.
The Buccaneers have been able to move the ball easily over the last few weeks, but they often stall out in the red zone. That could very well happen again at home against the Saints.
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