The Edmonton Oilers got off the mat.
Down, 2-1, in the best-of-seven series and trailing by three goals in Friday night’s Game 4, the Oilers staged a stunning comeback to get the Final back on level terms ahead of Sunday’s Game 5 in Alberta.
The Florida Panthers had the Oilers under siege for most of the first half of Game 4, but a power-play goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins turned the tide, and Edmonton came out on top, 5-4, in overtime thanks to a goal by Leon Draisaitl.
For most teams, a loss like that would be a gut punch and could cause things to spiral out of control. But the Panthers are built differently.
These Cats have weathered plenty of storms, including blowing a 3-0 series lead against these same Oilers in last year’s Final before winning Game 7.
There will likely be plenty of betting support for the Oilers in Game 5 based on the idea that they’ll carry the momentum from Friday night, but the Panthers deserve more credit than that.
In fact, the most important takeaway from Game 4, at least for bettors, was not that the Panthers lost but what’s going on in goal for the Oilers.
Stuart Skinner was pulled for the second straight game Friday night, and he has not been very sharp in this series.
The margins in this series are razor thin; the two teams have essentially split the goals, scoring chances and shot attempts down the middle at 5-on-5, so the goaltending battle could be the decisive factor.
Whether Kris Knoblauch chooses to go back to Skinner or rolls with journeyman Calvin Pickard in Game 5, there is no question that the Panthers have the edge in the blue paint, at least on paper.
Betting on the NHL?
Sergei Bobrovsky may not be at his best right now, but he’s got a terrific track record in the postseason and was the Conn Smythe favorite for Florida coming into the series.
Goaltending is fickle and tough to project, but if Bobrovsky does find his A-game, it would be a massive boost for the Panthers, who have played the Oilers to a 50-50 split in just about every area of the game.
THE PLAY: Panthers moneyline (+102, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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