Odds, picks, best bet for Saturday’s AAC headliner

Two of the best teams in the Group of 5 will meet in Graceland on Saturday afternoon.

For most of the season, it looked like this game would be an eliminator for the G5 bid in the College Football Playoff, but Memphis’ shocking loss as a three-score favorite to UAB last week changed that.

The Tigers still have an outside chance of gatecrashing the tournament, but they need to beat No. 18 South Florida on Saturday and get some help.

The Bulls are a 4.5-point road favorite in this massive clash.

USF vs. Memphis prediction, odds

South Florida put the college football world on notice right away with wins over Boise State and Florida in its first two games. A loss to Miami followed, but it’s hard to dock the Bulls for that effort given how the Hurricanes have looked this season.

The defeat to Miami remains the only blemish on South Florida’s ledger, and the Bulls responded to the defeat in style, winning their next four games by an average margin of 34.75 points.

Three of those opponents were also-rans, but a 63-36 victory over red-hot North Texas was as impressive a performance as you’ll see in the Group of 5 this season.

Memphis looked similarly impressive until last week, when UAB ended the Tigers’ 10-game winning streak in a massive upset. That was the Blazers’ first game since firing head coach Trent Dilfer, so maybe it was just poor timing, but nonetheless, it was a demoralizing defeat for Memphis, which looked every bit a contender in the AAC until the trip to Birmingham.

That said, one slip-up shouldn’t change what we thought we knew about Memphis. This is a well-oiled machine that relies on a terrific running game to get games on its terms.

According to SP+, Memphis boasts the 16th-best offense in the country, which makes the Tigers quite a formidable opponent for USF, which has been inconsistent on defense.

Betting on College Football?

This looks like your classic buy-low, sell-high spot, and it’s not like you’re buying low on a bad team. Memphis is quite good; it just had one poor showing.

Tigers pull the upset.

The Play: Memphis (+160, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.