Oddsmakers aren’t circling the “Third Saturday in October” on their 2025 calendars with much intrigue.
No. 6 Alabama is tabbed as 8.5-point favorites over No. 11 Tennessee in its 108th rivalry meeting after losing two of the last three years.
That’s a large spread for an SEC-best secondary squaring up to a top-five aerial attack. There’s been some perception shift, but the line has only moved two points toward the Vols since opening.
Tennessee vs. Alabama odds, prediction
You can tell where I’m going with this, so let’s begin with the obvious: Alabama doesn’t blow teams out. It won five straight since the stunning season opening loss to Florida State and each of those have been achieved by ball control and short-to-midrange passing.
Last week’s 27-24 victory over Missouri came in spite of 39 minutes of possession and although it commanded Georgia late, the defense coughed up 227 rushing yards.
Alabama’s chink in its armor is its No. 75 ranked rushing defense. Although it looked tighter against Missouri, which is a premiere rushing threat, the Tigers only ran 28 times. That was more so attached to the game script as opposed to incompetence.
Aside from already averaging 5.4 yards per attempt, the Vols offer a different threat in using pre-snap motion and deploying multiple backs. They can use the run to control rhythm and create play-action mismatches.
That leads me to Joey Aguilar, who is airing 280 yards per game and 9.2 per attempt. There’s lots of big-play capability between him and top wideout Chris Brazzell II, who raked in 177 yards for three touchdowns against Georgia.
Aguilar is deadly on play-action. As soon as linebackers bite, he’s proven that he can hit deep crossers, seams and sideline throws with ease.
He hasn’t faced a test like this Alabama secondary yet — or a road environment like this one. Still, Alabama thrives when the pass rush hits home and Tennessee has one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the SEC. With Aguilar’s quick release and excellent pocket awareness, throwing lanes should present themselves.
Betting on College Football?
I’m not ignoring the clear liabilities in a Tennessee defense that has surrendered over 29 points either. Most of that is thanks to problems with the run and last I checked, Alabama hasn’t been running wild on anyone lately. It’s more about Ty Simpson’s methodical approach in controlling the clock, which puts less pressure on the Vols to be elite every drive against him.
This is not your father’s Crimson Tide, and it’s not Nick Saban’s either. While the discipline is still fierce, it lacks the same engine. Kalen DeBoer’s product is more so built to survive than to steamroll.
THE PLAY: Tennessee +8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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