Perhaps more than any other sport, it behooves bettors to look at the schedule when handicapping college football games.
Players and coaches want to win every time they step onto the field, but they’d be lying to you if they said that they treat every game with equal measure.
We could see this play out in front of our very eyes on Friday night when undefeated Houston travels to Corvallis to take on Oregon State.
The resurgent Cougars are a 13.5-point favorite over the Beavers, who have spent the last two seasons wandering the college football wilderness.
Houston vs. Oregon State odds, prediction
Houston entered the season with tempered expectations.
The Cougars went 4-8 in each of the last two campaigns, but head coach Willie Fritz has shown a real knack for getting his programs to take a leap in the second year of his tenure.
It looks like Fritz may have done it again.
The Cougars dominated Stephen F. Austin and Rice by a combined score of 62-9 in their first two games, but they took things to another level in a 36-20 victory over Colorado in Week 3.
It’s been a rough start to the season for the Buffaloes, but that was a game that Houston had struggled to win in recent years.
The win over Colorado earned the Cougars some respect, but they’ll really turn heads if they can upset Texas Tech in Week 6.
Of course, Houston has a game between now and then, and it comes against a winless non-conference opponent 2,200 miles away.
Oregon State has been dreadful through the first four weeks of the campaign, but the Beavers have played a pretty rough schedule when you consider that they’re currently without a conference.
Losses to Cal, Fresno State, Texas Tech and Oregon don’t look that disappointing given where those four teams stand early in the campaign.
Betting on College Football?
In a vacuum, you’d be right in suggesting that the Beavers have every right to be huge underdogs in this matchup. But when you consider the schedule spot for Houston, you can see a world where you don’t get the best effort from Houston, while Oregon State is motivated to get a win on the ledger.
Handicapping motivation and situational spots is more of an art than a science, but this looks like one of those instances when it truly matters.
Take the points (and maybe sprinkle the moneyline) with the Beavers.
The Play: Oregon State +13.5 (-110, FanDuel) | Oregon State ML (+420, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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