The Lions and Packers will kick off a stuffed Thanksgiving Day slate of NFL games Thursday afternoon. Division matchups in the NFC North are always interesting regardless of the records, but this game is crucial for both sides.
The Packers (7-3-1) are currently sixth in the projected postseason standings in the NFC and the Lions (7-4) are eighth, just on the outer edges and looking in.
A loss for the Lions here makes their path to the postseason extremely narrow since the Packers already beat them to open the season. The Packers have the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL with two games against the Bears left on the schedule and the Broncos (on the road) and Ravens upcoming.
Oddsmakers have the Lions listed as 3-point favorites and the public is siding with the home team at BetMGM with Detroit landing 59% of spread tickets ahead of Thursday’s game.
Packers vs. Lions odds, prediction
It’s tough to measure Dan Campbell and the Lions based on what we saw from Detroit last weekend.
Maybe you dismiss the results because the Giants pulled off two trick plays, but Jameis Winston looked like an All-Pro quarterback at times, going against the Lions’ defense. The Giants had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter and, in typical Giants fashion, gave the Lions every chance to come back.
The Lions haven’t looked good since they returned from their Week 8 Bye, but it’s hard to ignore a flat performance like that, even if they eventually got the win in overtime.
Speaking of not looking great, the Packers don’t look particularly scary on offense lately.
They’ll have Josh Jacobs back in this one, but Jordan Love isn’t wowing anyone with his play right now. I do love this Packers defense, which has allowed the third-fewest touchdowns in the NFL this season.
Both teams are banged up, but the Lions have injury issues along the offensive line and in the secondary with Graham Glasgow out and Kerby Joseph still nursing a knee injury.
Detroit is still a talented team, but clearly not the dominant one it was last season, when it finished 15-2.
Betting on the NFL?
Home favorites tend to do well on Thanksgiving Day, but I think the Packers have more momentum entering this game. Their defense should be able to contain the Lions’ big plays, and if they do their job keeping the Lions out of the end zone, I like them to cover.
I’ll grab the Packers at +3.
The Pick: Packers +3 (-115, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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