In many seasons, the Super Bowl selection for this space is made at around 6 p.m. on the Thursday before the Big Game, just in time to make the print deadline.
That’s not the case this time. Rather, this pick already has been published, back on Sept. 4 in The Post’s 2024 NFL special section.
Those who bought into the prognostication of Eagles over Chiefs in Sunday’s Super Bowl would be holding a +6600 (66/1) ticket at BetMGM and have the opportunity to either double down or hedge to guarantee a sizable profit.
It would be great if I were one of those people, but I’ve had too many of my preseason Super Bowl teams end up under .500 or with an injured quarterback over the years to want to tie up too much money for five months on a lottery ticket.
The other thing is that this bet has not yet won. All the Eagles have to do is defeat the Chiefs, the two-time defending champions who are on the cusp of the NFL’s first Super Bowl three-peat. They have to find a way to solve Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, arguably a top-three quarterback-coach duo in NFL history.
Here are some of the reasons I believe the Eagles will make it happen.
l Saquon Barkley: The former Giant who’s causing owner John Mara to lose a lot of sleep has transformed the Philadelphia offense. It now has a bellcow runner operating behind an excellent offensive line, and his dominance only serves to make the Eagles’ other weapons — A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith — all the more dangerous.
Barkley ran for 2,005 yards, making him the ninth to hit that milestone. He had needed 101 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old record but was held out of the meaningless last game along with most of the Eagles’ other starters.
How great has Barkley been? He averaged 5.8 yards per carry in the regular season and has upped that to 6.7 yards per carry in the playoffs. It’s easy to do the math and see how simple it is for the Eagles to get first downs, move the chains, keep the clock moving and the ball out of Mahomes’ hands.
But more than being just a grinder, Barkley is also a home-run hitter. In the Nov. 24 game against the Rams in L.A., he had touchdown runs of 70 and 72 yards. His dance card also includes runs of 78 yards (in the playoffs vs. the Rams), 68, 65, 60 (in the playoffs vs. the Commanders), 59 and 55.
Defenses can’t stop him even when they know he’s getting the ball. The playoff touchdown vs. Washington came on the Eagles’ first play from scrimmage in the game. The 70-yarder in L.A. came on the first play of the second half.
The overall numbers are mind-boggling — 14 games (out of 19) with at least 100 yards, eight games with at least 146 yards, an average of 129 yards per game.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense, which was good against the run in the regular season, has been handled in the playoffs. The Texans ran for 149 yards on 5.1 yards per carry in the divisional round, and the Bills rolled up 147 ground yards on 4.6 yards per carry before they mysteriously turned away from James Cook.
l The refs: Of course we’re going here! The officiating dynamic has dominated the past two weeks of conversation heading into the Super Bowl.
This all started two years ago in Super Bowl LVII when a defensive holding penalty against the Eagles’ James Bradberry basically sealed Kansas City’s 38-35 victory.
Then the 2023 season saw a handful of decisive calls go the Chiefs’ way. In this column we had some fun with the conspiracy theory that the league was playing up the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift relationship, was profiting from the increased ratings and jersey sales to the Swifties, and was hell-bent on getting Taylor and her millions of fans to the Super Bowl.
This past season, there were more curious calls, such as the one in the Raiders game when Clay Martin called a game-ending illegal shift instead of a false start that would have nullified a Raiders fumble and given them a chance at a long field goal to win the game.
And in the playoffs, all eyes have been on two personal foul penalties on the Texans on hits on Mahomes (ESPN’s Troy Aikman went nuts on one of them), and a disputed catch and controversial spot in the Bills game.
In the past few days, Rich Eisen, NFL Network’s leading man for 21 years, gave comedian Bill Burr a platform on his radio show to question whether the games are fixed. Commissioner Roger Goodell trashed the “ridiculous theory,” not something you usually hear in a state-of-the-league address. And Scott Green, the chief of the refs union, said Goodell was “spot on” and that it’s “insulting and preposterous to hear conspiracy theories that somehow 17 officiating crews consisting of 138 officials are colluding to assist one team.”
As Shakespeare wrote in “Hamlet” about 620 years ago: “The lady doth protest too much.”
But seriously, the point is this: The heat of the spotlight is on the refs and every call made in this game. The reputation and integrity of the NFL is in question. I believe the Eagles will get a fair whistle, a fair flag, a fair replay review. And if they do, that should be enough because …
l The analytics … of the game slightly favor the Eagles.
I don’t typically devote a lot of words to the deeper numbers in the explanation of my picks during the season, but there’s one stat that looks to be more important than others. That’s DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average. This metric measures the success of an NFL team compared to the league average by adjusting for down and distance, strength of the opponent, even field conditions.
In overall DVOA for the regular season plus playoffs, the Eagles ranked third and Chiefs sixth. In the regular season, it was Eagles fifth and Chiefs eighth.
On offense, the Chiefs ranked eighth for the season and the Eagles 13th. Defensively, Philadelphia was No. 1 and Kansas City No. 12.
Betting on the NFL?
Most of those numbers give the Eagles a small edge. Not much, but when the spread is this small, it could be enough. At the very least, it gives you the notion that the Chiefs aren’t an almighty and unbeatable team.
l The parallel: Lastly, this Super Bowl matchup has a similar vibe to Eagles-Patriots in February 2018. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were the quarterback-coach gold standard, the Patriots had won five previous Super Bowls, and the way they did it (impossible interception vs. Seattle and 28-3 comeback vs. Atlanta) made it look as if they couldn’t possibly lose.
The Eagles beat them 41-33 with backup QB Nick Foles and the legendary Philly Special trick play.
The picks: Eagles +1.5 and Over 48.5 (BetMGM)
Eagles 30, Chiefs 27.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Eagles (Locks 10-11 in 2024-25).
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK: 3-1 overall (2-0 sides, 1-1 Over/Under).
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