Experts from The Post and Action Network handicap Saturday’s 151st running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Post time is approximately 6:57 p.m.
Vic Cangialosi
New York Post racing handicapper
1. Sandman: Slow starter. Fast finisher.
Couldn’t get up in time to win the Rebel but would not be denied in the Arkansas Derby.
Lost touch with the pacesetters before powering by them all in the stretch.
Deep closers will invariably get into traffic trouble in the 19-deep Derby.
If the Tapit-sired gray can stay clean while staying in the same area code as the front-runners, the Sandman will make a run and put this field to sleep.
2. Baeza: You gotta be in it to win it.
And two days before the Run for the Roses, No. 21 will load the gate after Rodriguez scratched. But this is not Rich Strike 2.
The 80-1 shot drew in the morning of the race and shocked the racing world.
Baeza has a real chance after running his eyeballs out in the Santa Anita Derby, only to lose to the fast-closing Journalism.
Short résumé. Big chance. And no better rider than Flavien Prat.
3. Journalism: The horse to beat because he refuses to lose.
He’s won four straight and seems to get better with every start.
Overcame some early trouble to catch Baeza in the Santa Anita Derby.
Top form. Top fig (102). But the top pick? Legit favorite will make his presence felt but come up a bit short.
Michael Leboff
New York Post betting writer
1. Journalism: Journalism won’t be the best betting value on the board, but if you’re putting odds aside, he’s the most logical pick to win.
When the only real knock against a horse is that the Kentucky Derby is hard to win, you know you have a deserving favorite.
2. Luxor Cafe: It’s becoming a time-honored tradition to fall for an impressive horse shipping in from Japan, and I’ll do it again this year with Luxor Cafe.
His win at the Fukuryu Stakes was as smooth a performance as you’ll ever see.
Maybe this is the year for Japan.
3. Chunk of Gold: Maybe not a win contender, but a horse to keep in your pocket for exotics because of his ability to pick up the pieces late.
He’ll be passing a lot of tiring horses down the stretch if he gets a good trip.
Mike Conti
Action Network racing handicapper
1. Luxor Cafe: Ships over from Japan, where he’s won his last four starts.
His sire is American Pharoah, who won this race back in 2015.
He has a strong late kick, which will be key in a race with a lot of early pace.
2. Journalism: The deserving morning-line favorite comes in with the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure (102).
While he looks to be the most talented horse in the field, he’s beaten just 12 horses in his past three starts combined.
He will need to beat 18 others in the Derby.
He’s bred top and bottom to get the distance and has a ferocious closing kick. For Journalism, it will all come down to the trip.
3. Final Gambit: He’s never raced on dirt but won the Jeff Ruby Stakes last time out.
In the last 22 years, five horses who won the Jeff Ruby have hit the board.
He is a deep closer, coming from last to win in his most recent starts.
If the pace melts down, look for him to come flying late.
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