Picks for Offensive, Defensive POY

The NFL season is fast approaching, and as we count down to next Thursday’s kickoff game between the Ravens and Chiefs, there’s still time to fire on some futures for the upcoming year.

In this article, I’ll provide my favorite value in the Player of the Year futures markets on offense and defense.

Be sure to shop around as odds can vary widely.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds

Best Value: Bijan Robinson (+2000, BetRivers)

After the Falcons made Bijan Robinson the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft, his rookie season hype was through the roof.

But not much went right for Atlanta’s offense en route to a 27th-ranked finish in EPA/play, mainly due to some of the worst quarterback play in the league and a head coach, Arthur Smith, who constantly undermined his most talented players.

Despite those offensive issues, Robinson still ranked top six in targets, receptions, and receiving yards at the running back position.

He spent just under 30% of the team’s pass plays from the slot or out wide, the most among qualified backs, highlighting his elite pass-catching upside.

Now, Robinson enters an offense helmed by Kirk Cousins, who ranked fourth in EPA (expected points added) + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) last year before suffering a season-ending Achilles injury.

The Falcons also hired a new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson.

A Sean McVay disciple, Robinson has said Robinson will be the focal point of his offense, and he wants to find “creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with Christian McCaffrey.”

The Offensive Player of the Year award has gone to a division-winning team every year since 2012, and the Falcons — who some believe could finish with the NFL’s best regular-season record — are the significant favorites to win the NFC South this season.

Robinson checks every box with dual-threat rushing and receiving ability and sky-high touchdown upside, and he’s ready to capitalize on the elite talent that made him a coveted draft pick last year.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds

Best Value: Aidan Hutchinson (+1400, FanDuel)

Aidan Hutchinson had a monstrous second season, racking up 101 pressures, the second-most in the league. He also ranked top five in PFF’s pass-rush grades and win rate.

Hutchinson has a deep bag of pass-rushing moves headlined by his ability to convert speed to power.

His patented spin made even the best offensive tackles in the league look silly last year.

However, Hutchinson’s sack production was somewhat limited, in large part due to a poor Lions secondary, which ranked 29th in PFF’s coverage grades and 25th in pass defense EPA.

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General manager Brad Holmes attacked this weakness over the offseason, signing Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson in free agency before landing Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. in the draft.

The Lions should have massively improved secondary play.

Hutchinson’s 101 pressures last season translated to just 11 sacks, a 10.9% conversion rate.

Compare that to players like Myles Garrett (17.4%), Micah Parsons (15.5%), Nick Bosa (14.7%) and T.J. Watt (23.2%), and there’s obvious room for improvement in Hutchinson’s third season.

The Lions are in the top five for Super Bowl odds at most sportsbooks, and they should remain in the public eye this year with five primetime games, tied for the second-most in the NFL.

If Hutchinson can deliver some signature moments en route to a 15-plus sack season on one of the league’s best teams, those 14-1 odds will be an incredible value.