I firmly believe that Pitt is the most overvalued team in the country.
The Panthers are +7 in net turnovers, forcing five against Syracuse last week. That’s bound to regress.
They’ve been outgained in three of their past five wins, averaging less than five yards per play over the past two weeks. They’re bound to drop one of those games.
Their secondary continually gets shredded, ranking 87th nationally in EPA per pass allowed and 124th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. Their 10 interceptions from poor opposing quarterback play have bailed them out.
Head coach Pat Narduzzi utilizes plenty of quarters coverage, which is a look that SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has done reasonably well against.
I also fully expect Jennings to bounce back after a disgusting three-interception performance against Duke last week. Before the loss, Jennings had thrown two picks on one turnover-worthy play on 172 dropbacks — he can expose Pitt’s vulnerable defensive backfield without making costly mistakes.
While Pitt’s front seven has been stout against the run (14th in EPA per Rush allowed), the Panthers have surprisingly struggled against inside-zone and power concepts — SMU’s bread and butter — because they rank 86th nationally in broken tackles allowed.
Meanwhile, Rhett Lashlee’s front seven has been impenetrable against the ground game, ranking second nationally in EPA per Rush allowed.
If the Mustangs can keep Pitt’s dangerous rushing attack at bay, it’ll force banged up quarterback Eli Holstein to win the game with his arm. And there’s some looming turnover regression coming for him, given only five of his 14 turnover-worthy throws have ended up as interceptions.
I’m banking on SMU creating methodical and explosive drives while shutting down Pitt’s rushing attack and creating some short fields. It’s time for someone to expose the Narduzzi Ponzi Scheme.
The pick: SMU -7.5
Betting on College Football?
Minnesota (-3) over ILLINOIS
I faded Illinois in this column last week, questioning how good the 6-1 Illini are.
After failing to cover as three-touchdown ’dogs against Oregon, it’s safe to say the Illini are overvalued. They’re 6-2 with a -2.6% net Success Rate, allowing nearly 100 more total yards (2928) than they’ve gained (2852).
Meanwhile, Minnesota is playing lights-out football. The Gophers have won three straight Big Ten games behind a top-15 defense (13th nationally in EPA per Play allowed) and ever-improving quarterback play from Max Brosmer.
Brosmer was historically good at the FCS level with New Hampshire, and adjusting to the Power 4 ranks took him a while. But he’s completed a whopping 75% of his passes during the winning streak, amassing 680 passing yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions.
Brosmer and Co. should have no issues carving up an Illini defense that ranks 116th nationally in Success Rate allowed, including 95th against the pass and 115th against the run.
Last week: 2-1. Michigan State (L). Oregon (W). Kansas (W)
2024 season: 14-12.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
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