It’s MLB getaway day for several teams, with six of the 14 games on Wednesday’s slate scheduled for the afternoon.
We’re coming off a scorching-hot week in which both of the home run picks in our MLB best bets last Wednesday hit.
While it doesn’t always work out that way, I had to run it back this week with one more home run hitter at fantastic odds.
MLB best bets for Wednesday
Ryan Weathers fewer than 4.5 strikeouts (PrizePicks)
This new-look Yankees team is a total 180 from previous seasons. Instead of a lineup full of hitters that either strike out or go deep, there is so much more versatility throughout.
The additions of left-handed bats Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo have done wonders. The regular lineup now has six hitters that draw walks at more than a 10% clip dating back to the beginning of last season.
Opposing this lineup for the Marlins will be Ryan Weathers, a former reliever who had a decent spring but hasn’t been great in his two starts. He struck out just 16.7% of batters last season and was miserable against right-handed hitters.
The Yankees should be sending out six righties on Wednesday, while two of the left-handers are Soto and Verdugo, who are always a nightmare to deal with at the dish.
Weathers walked more than 11% of batters last season. I’m expecting his pitch count to be a problem, and for him to be “yanked” before he hits five strikeouts.
Evan Carter to hit a home run (+600, BetMGM)
The Rangers have a wealth of young riches, as Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford — the top two favorites to win AL Rookie of the Year — are here to stay.
Even though Carter had a taste of action late last year, he’s still considered a rookie. That means we have a bit of MLB data on him.
Across 98 plate appearances dating back to his 2023 MLB playing time, Carter owns a .308 ISO against right-handed pitching. His barrel rate isn’t where I’d like it to be for this bet, especially since the opposing pitcher is the soft-tossing Ross Stripling.
Stripling somehow still has a job in 2024. He gave up 20 home runs in just 89 innings of work in 2023, and he really struggled vs. left-handed hitters. He gave way to a .221 ISO and a very high 12.8% barrel rate against them.
Kyle Hendricks under 3.5 strikeouts (-155, Bet365)
This is a matchup that features an over-the-hill Cubs pitcher who throws to contact versus one of the best contact-hitting teams in baseball (Padres).
It’s a brutal one for Hendricks, who also hasn’t thrown more than 83 pitchers in either of his two starts this season.
Hendricks was a decent pitcher once upon a time, but he was terrible last season and is even worse in 2024.
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He struck out just a tick more than 16% of hitters last season, which close to par with this year’s 14%.
The Padres rank third in baseball with a stingy 19% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching this season.
Youngsters Jackson Merrill and Luis Campusano have given this lineup a much-needed boost.
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