NFL upsets reigned supreme in Week 2 as nine underdogs won outright, and a handful of teams are left scratching their heads going into Week 3.
Since 1990, only 11.5% of teams that started 0-2 have made the playoffs.
Since the NFL expanded the postseason in 2020, just two of 32 teams (6.3%) to start 0-2 have advanced.
The odds are stacked against two should-be Super Bowl contenders from the AFC North.
Let’s look at the current odds for the winless Ravens and Bengals and make a case for them either making or missing the playoffs.
Ravens (-132 to make playoffs, +108 to miss playoffs – FanDuel)
On Sunday, the Ravens suffered a shocking defeat at home to the Raiders.
With a post-game win expectancy of 94.5%, Baltimore blew a 10-point lead midway through the fourth quarter and lost on a field goal in the final minute.
Still, according to FTN Fantasy, the Ravens have a 63.4% chance of making the playoffs, which would make fair value -175 odds.
FTN also gives Baltimore a 38% chance of winning the AFC North (best in the division), translating to around +160 odds. Baltimore is priced at +210 to win the AFC North on DraftKings.
According to Tankathon, the Ravens have the fifth-most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL.
Still, they benefit from the largest net rest edge in the league, with a +16-day advantage, according to Sharp Football.
Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have a league-best 21-5 (81%) record over the last 26 games with a rest edge of at least three days.
I expect the Ravens offensive line to continue to gel as the season progresses, and the backfield tandem of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry remains a terrifying duo to defend.
The defense is bound to take a step back after losing Mike Macdonald, who orchestrated last year’s elite unit, but the likes of Justin Madubuike, Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey ensure this is still a top-five unit.
In the next three weeks, Baltimore faces the Cowboys, Bills and Bengals — a stretch that will decide their fate this season.
If you believe they can go 2-1 or better, which I do, you should bet them to make the playoffs.
However, with the vulnerable Steelers in first place, I’d instead shoot for the upside with the Ravens to win the AFC North.
Recommendations: Ravens to make playoffs or win AFC North.
Bengals (-130 to make playoffs, +106 to miss playoffs)
Based on the current odds, the Bengals are still favored to make the playoffs, and a -138 price tag has an implied probability of about 58%.
That’s in stark contrast to FTN’s numbers, which gives them a 46.5% chance to make the playoffs.
That would make fair odds on Cincinnati to make the playoffs at +115, with fair odds to miss around -115.
Before the season, I recommended the Bengals miss the postseason at +205 odds, which looks like tremendous value now.
Betting on the NFL?
Upcoming games against Jayden Daniels, Andy Dalton and Daniel Jones will help pad their record, but I have long-term concerns about this team.
After ranking 29th in defensive-line yards last year, the Bengals have not improved their run defense since losing D.J. Reader, ranking 29th in early-down run defense success rate through two weeks.
The continued absence of Tee Higgins also limits the team’s offensive explosiveness.
I’d be stunned if the Bengals didn’t bounce back with a Week 3 home game against the Commanders, and if you didn’t already bet them to miss the playoffs, I’d wait until after that contest to get a better number.
Recommendation: Pass for now; wait until after the Bengals’ Week 3 MNF game.
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