Russia ‘cautiously optimistic’ on Ukraine ceasefire but keeps caveats

Russia struck a sedate tone on Friday but acknowledged grounds for cautious optimism, after only backing the “idea” of a U.S. brokered 30-day ceasefire with firm caveats.

“The idea [of a ceasefire] itself is correct and we are certainly supporting it, but there are issues that need to be discussed,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday, urging further discussions with Washington and a potential call with White House leader Donald Trump.

The Kremlin leader has expressed concerns that a temporary truce would bide Kyiv’s forces the time to “supply weapons” or “train newly mobilized units” and questioned how the ceasefire would be enforced.

Trump, who has defrosted Washington’s relationship with Moscow since the January start of his second term in the presidential office, on Thursday said that Kyiv and the White House had discussed elements of an agreement including territorial concessions, the fate of an unnamed power plant — likely the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility — and Ukraine’s future accession to NATO.

“Now we’re going to see whether or not Russia is there, and if they’re not, it’ll be a very disappointing moment for the world,” Trump said. “[Putin] put out a very promising statement, but it was incomplete. And yeah, I’d love to meet with him, or talk to him.”

The president’s envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow for direct negotiations on Thursday.

“We do have some cautious optimism,” U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said in a Fox News TV interview. “Of course both sides are going to have their demands, and of course both sides are going to have to make some compromises, and the shuttle diplomacy of going back and forth is happening.”

The Kremlin retained a cautious tone on Friday despite the Thursday developments.

“There are certainly reasons to be cautiously optimistic,” Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters, in Google-translated comments carried by Russian state outlet Tass.

“[Putin] said that he supports President Trump’s position in terms of a settlement, but he voiced some questions that need to be answered together,” he added, according to Reuters. “So, yes, indeed, there is still a lot to be done, but nevertheless, the president expressed solidarity with Mr. Trump’s position.”

The U.S.-brokered and Ukraine-endorsed ceasefire draft marks a breakthrough in the three-year conflict of attrition, which continued with overnight drone attacks reported on both sides by Ukrainian and Russian officials. The proposal also resets relations in the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine triangle, after a heated late-February White House clash between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the temporary interruption of U.S. military aid to Kyiv seemed poised to thrust Washington deeper into the Kremlin’s orbit.

It is now Putin who must tread lightly with Trump, who has made ending the Russia-Ukraine war — and reviewing the U.S.’ financial contributions toward it — a priority since taking office.

Yet some analysts question the fate of the ceasefire agreement, which follows previous unsuccessful peace plans from Zelenskyy and China.

“Putin is holding the ceasefire proposal hostage and is attempting to extract preemptive concessions ahead of formal negotiations to end the war,” the Institute for the Study of War said in analysis, warning the Kremlin leader is likely “disinterested in good faith peace negotiations” and still seeks to deliver on long-term objectives of Ukrainian demilitarization.

“Putin’s envisioned ceasefire would grant Russia greatly disproportionate advantages and set conditions for the Kremlin to renew hostilities on terms extremely favorable to Russia,” it added.

Moscow’s steep terms to begin peace negotiations, laid out in June last year, included Ukraine’s complete military withdrawal from the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as well as Kyiv’s abandonment of plans to join the NATO military alliance and imperil Russian security — a key point among the Kremlin’s stated reasons for its full-fledged invasion of its neighbor in 2022.