Wednesday’s match between Jannik Sinner and Ben Shelton is a doozy to handicap.
Sinner is the World No. 1 and a -330 favorite to beat the rising American, but there are more concerns about the Italian coming into this match than Shelton.
The most notable is that Sinner injured his elbow in his match against Grigor Dimitrov on Monday, and it was uncertain whether or not he would even be able to play on Wednesday.
Nonetheless, the bookies believe in Sinner enough to give him a 76.7 percent chance of defeating Shelton in the quarters.
Wimbledon: Shelton vs. Sinner betting preview
Putting the injury aside, Sinner is arguably the best player in the world right now. While Carlos Alcaraz can also claim that title, the Italian is still ranked as the No. 1 player on the planet, so we’ll give him a slight edge.
What makes Sinner unique is that, when he gets out in front of you in a match, no matter how early on it is, he can make it seem like you’re a mile behind.
His court coverage, power, and serve are all elite, so it makes his opponents look like they’re flailing as they try to make their way back into a match.
With so many weapons in his arsenal, it can feel as though Sinner is invincible when he’s on song.
Shelton’s toolkit is rapidly evolving, but he still relies on his bread-and-butter serve. The former Florida Gator can win matches with it alone, and no other parts of his game working, but those kinds of matches are becoming more and more rare, especially at Grand Slams.
He likely won’t have the overall game to compete with Sinner and Alcaraz consistently, but in one-offs, Shelton can absolutely get the job done.
Wimbledon: Shelton vs. Sinner betting pick
All things being equal, this line would be uninteresting to me on both sides.
But given Sinner’s murky status, not to mention the emotional recovery he’ll have to make after being gifted a spot in the quarterfinals after Grigor Dimitrov had to retire due to injury up two sets to none in the Round of 16, there are some intriguing options on Shelton.
You can go for the straightforward play on the moneyline, but given Sinner’s injury, there’s a chance he’s just completely out of sorts on Wednesday, making the 12/1 payout on Shelton to win the match, 3-0, an enticing long shot.
The Play: Shelton to win 3-0 (12/1, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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