From Providence College to the Knicks and Kentucky to Louisville, Rick Pitino’s teams have traditionally taken major leaps in his second season.
Providence reached the Final Four.
Kentucky had an eight-win improvement.
Louisville went from eighth to third in the Big East and the Knicks won the Atlantic Division.
Can St. John’s follow that script?
There is optimism after a strong offseason — during which Pitino and his staff landed top guards Kadary Richmond (Seton Hall) and Deivon Smith (Utah) through the transfer portal and kept the young core of RJ Luis, Brady Dunlap, Zuby Ejiofor and Simeon Wilcher together — that the Johnnies can break through and return to the main draw of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015.
With summer workouts beginning over the last week, The Post spoke to three anonymous college coaches and two analysts — John Fanta of Fox and Jon Rothstein of CBS — to break down what, on paper, has the makings of a formidable roster.
Strengths
The backcourt has the potential to be elite. Richmond and Smith led a transfer class ranked first in the country by EvanMiya.com, which uses a formula that incorporates box stats and advanced metrics to quantify the overall impact of players. The 6-foot Smith, a speed merchant tailor-made for Pitino’s uptempo system, set a Pac-12 single-season record with five triple-doubles. Richmond, a big (6-6) play-making guard who was an All-Big East first team selection, carried Seton Hall to an unexpected fourth-place finish in the Big East and an NIT crown. They’re joined by the sophomore Wilcher, who was a prized top-30 prospect coming out of Roselle Catholic (N.J.) and improved as a freshman as the year went on. All three are capable of creating their own shot.
“If you look at Rick Pitino’s history as a head coach, his best teams have always been anchored by ferocious guards who can get after the opponent defensively and that’s the makeup of this team,” Rothstein said. “Now, and they have to go out and prove it, St. John’s is in position to have the best backcourt in the Big East and potentially have one of the best backcourts in the country.”
The group’s one shortcoming could be perimeter shooting. Wilcher is the best 3-point shooter of the trio, but is still an unproven commodity. Smith shot a career-best 40.8 percent from downtown last year, but only attempted 2.5 treys per game. Richmond has never taken more than 1.8 per game in any of his four college seasons. Teams will play off them. But, Rothstein noted, Smith’s and Richmond’s shooting limitations didn’t hinder them last year as they combined to attempt 7.9 free throws a season ago. Plus, the 6-7 Dunlap is expected to take a leap as a court-spacer, and top-50 freshman recruit Jaden Glover of The Patrick School (N.J.) can make shots.
There was some uncertainty how Richmond and Smith would coexist as two lead guards who are used to dominating the ball. But the coaches expect that to sort itself out, that Pitino can make it work just like he did at Louisville with Peyton Siva and Russ Smith.
“Anyone that thinks that between Richmond’s skill set and Rick Pitino’s coaching ability they won’t figure it out is fooling themselves,” one of the coaches said.
Versatility is a word that was used a lot to describe St. John’s. Richmond’s size and rebounding prowess — he averaged seven boards a season ago — will allow them to play small, with Luis and North Texas transfer Aaron Scott, a capable 3-point shooter and strong defender, at the four. The Red Storm can also go big because 7-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu and Ejiofor are capable of defending on the perimeter. Pitino has options.
“They have more proven guys at this level than they did last year,” the coach said.
Weaknesses
Some questioned the shotmaking, but the bigger concern is up front. Iwuchukwu was a big-time prospect entering USC, but has battled health issues and has yet to prove himself at the college level. International forward Ruben Prey is highly regarded, but still an unknown. Ejiofor had a strong second half last season, but still only averaged 4.3 points and 3.1 rebounds as a sophomore. Replacing the production of Joel Soriano and Chris Ledlum won’t be easy. The duo combined for 23.3 points and 16.4 rebounds. There are potential solutions, but still question marks.
“From that position, St. John’s needs to find a way to get 12 points and 12 rebounds (per game),” Rothstein said.
X Factor
Luis’ first year as a Johnnie was marred by injuries. He missed an extended period of time due to a broken hand and shin splints. The latter malady limited his practice time significantly and cut into his potential impact. Still, there were flashes of immense promise. In the 15 games in which the multi-talented 6-foot-7 Luis logged at least 21 minutes, he averaged 13.1 points and 5.7 rebounds. He was the best player on the floor in the Big East Tournament quarterfinal rout of Seton Hall, producing 18 points and nine rebounds. Since the season ended, Luis underwent surgery on his shins, and is hopeful of joining summer workouts next month.
“I love RJ,” another of the coaches said. “I love his energy, how hard he plays. He’ll be a mismatch problem for other fours.”
If Luis can be a consistent scorer averaging somewhere in the mid-teens, a third coach said, “that’s a game-changer.”
Projection
All five sources agree this is, at least on paper, a top-five team in what will be a loaded top half of the Big East. It’s an improved roster, they all agreed, from the group that won 20 games a year ago and was an NCAA Tournament snub. Better depth, more athleticism, and suited for Pitino’s pressing style.
“Sweet 16. They can win two games in the NCAA Tournament if everything falls into place,” Fanta, the Fox announcer and analyst, said. “Are you really going to doubt Rick Pitino and say he has two years in a row that don’t go his way? I’m not going to do that. They have an NCAA Tournament roster, they’re going to be a preseason top-25 team for me.
“They have All-Big East players, and they have returning players who showed some flashes.”
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