If Patrick Mahomes had retired before he won last year’s Super Bowl against the Eagles, it’s safe to say he would have been a shoo-in first-ballot Hall of Fame candidate.
He now has a chance to slide a third ring onto his hand in his sixth season while facing the same team he conquered four years ago.
The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback opened as the favorite to win MVP honors in Super Bowl 2024 despite the San Francisco 49ers being favored; he remains at +150 odds at the time of this writing.
All things considered, we’re expecting Mahomes to conjure his vintage self in Las Vegas on Sunday night.
We’ve compiled the best Mahomes props to target when it comes to wagering on No. 15 in the Big Game.
Mahomes over 26.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)
It was a career-low season for Mahomes in terms of passing yardage.
He’s been able to excel by playing conservative football throughout the playoffs, which has featured a healthy pace of 25 scrimmage yards.
With the Chiefs’ passing game faltering at various points throughout the season, Mahomes compensated by posting a career-high rushing yards.
This boosted him to the No. 2 overall player in rushing + receiving yards.
The 49ers have a shut-down scheme against the run, ranking top five in both attempts and yards against.
However, they have allowed more than 27 rushing yards to quarterbacks in three of their last six games.
Mahomes has hit this mark in all three of his previous Super Bowl appearances, so look for him to make a big scramble play or two when the throws aren’t there.
Mahomes longest pass over 36.5 yards (-105, FanDuel)
Even with his rushing prowess, Mahomes is touted for converting on explosive plays when it’s most needed.
He only has one play that’s hit at least 37 yards in these playoffs and that was against the Dolphins in arctic Kansas City conditions.
Mahomes reached this prop distance on longest plays in nine of 16 regular-season games. Believe it or not, only two of those were to Travis Kelce.
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It might seem like a shallow receiving corps beyond Kelce, but Rashee Rice’s rookie rise to a reliable wideout has involved connecting on a handful of deep vertical routes.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Justin Watson don’t show up at a consistent rate, but they are ranked No. 2 and 3, respectively, in average target rate at the wide receiver position.
Expect deep looks to them from Mahomes.
Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions (-105, FanDuel)
Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since Christmas, but there’s only so long he can go without another pick.
He’s been protective of the football, and it’s worked so far. But risks are going to be needed Sunday against a 49ers secondary that was tied for the most interceptions this season.
In turn, it finished with forcing the second-best interception rate.
When these two teams met in Super Bowl 54, Mahomes threw two picks. It’s time for something to give.
Mahomes to throw a second-quarter touchdown (+116 , FanDuel)
This one is if you’re looking for a fun, two-way market with some reasoning to back it.
If you like Mahomes to throw at least one touchdown in the game, the second quarter offers enough of a worthwhile price.
I know it feels random; his prop to throw a touchdown in the first quarter has much better value but that’s because the Chiefs have been too erratic in starting games.
Kansas City was much more efficient scoring points in the second quarter; it ranked 14th in first-quarter points, but No. 6 in first-half average.
A lot of what did go on the board in the first quarter was by way of field goals through Harrison Butker.
Mahomes took a regression in touchdown percentage overall, ranking at No. 16 among qualifying quarterbacks.
Of the three Super Bowls he’s competed in, Mahomes only threw a touchdown in the first quarter against the Eagles last year.
It’s a game script-dependent prop, but I’m giving him a frame to adjust before striking — just how the Lions were able to break through in the second quarter against San Francisco.
And don’t forget: Mahomes loves playing in Allegiant Stadium, where he’s averaged 2.5 touchdown passes in four career games played there.
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