The vote on progress is never unanimous. Not for abolitionism or suffrage or the Apollo space program.
Not even for the College Football Playoff.
There were those who decried the devaluation of the bowl system and bemoaned the diminished meaning of regular season games. But for every iconic chapter of the Iron Bowl or “The Game,” there are far more moments that you have forgotten, decided by several scores.
This week, 15 of the Top 25 teams are favored by double digits. Because of the 12-team playoff, as many as 17 games — even discounting games featuring locks such as Oregon and Ohio State — could potentially impact the postseason field.
The lone matchup featuring ranked teams is between Texas and Texas A&M, with the winner of the renewed rivalry heading to the SEC title game.
The Longhorns (10-1) are certain to return to the playoff, though they have done little to deserve it. They haven’t beaten one ranked team. They’ve played the softest schedule in the SEC. Their only impressive outing of the past six weeks came against a walk-on freshman quarterback.
This week, Quinn Ewers, the preseason Heisman favorite turned owner of the 36th-best QB rating in the country, will likely play on a bum ankle in the loudest environment imaginable, with more than 102,000 fans packed into Kyle Field for the Aggies’ biggest late-season game in over a quarter-century.
This is the moment TEXAS A&M (+5.5, ESPN BET) has been looking forward to for weeks — “Our focus is single-handedly on Texas, I mean, Auburn,” Aggies coach Mike Elko mistakenly said before last week’s four-overtime loss — a game that can put the Aggies in position to earn a playoff bye as a three-loss team.
Progress makes it possible.
Memphis (+14) over TULANE
Only two Group of Five teams (North Texas, Louisiana) have been competitive against the Green Wave. Both rank among the top 15 offenses in the nation. Memphis is next, averaging nearly 35 points per game.
Oregon State (+20.5) over BOISE STATE
Last week, Ashton Jeanty received 19 carries, the first time he dipped below 30 since the first week in October. With the Mountain West Championship — and anticipated playoff game — looming, the Broncos won’t run the banged up back into the ground.
Georgia Tech (+19.5) over GEORGIA
Even if the Bulldogs end the season as national champions, they may never achieve focus for 60 minutes. Entering 2-8 against the spread as a favorite, Georgia — which just allowed 226 rushing yards to UMass — could struggle to slow a Tech ground game averaging 180 yards per game.
Michigan (+21) over OHIO STATE
The Wolverines are overmatched, but well-prepared, playing their third top-five team of the season in their version of this season’s championship game. Ohio State is 0-5 against the spread as a favorite of a touchdown or more against Michigan since 2013.
VANDERBILT (+11) over Tennessee
The Vols have only one SEC win by more than 10 points. Vanderbilt has lost one game by double digits this season, has beaten Alabama at home and lost by a field goal to Texas. The Commodores’ best season in more than a decade won’t end with embarrassment.
South Carolina (+2.5) over CLEMSON
Death Valley won’t be a death knell for the battle-tested Gamecocks, who have excelled on the road, won five straight games and knocked off Clemson there in 2022. If Dabo Swinney had the juggernaut of years past, he wouldn’t be prematurely complaining about the playoff serving as “an SEC-Big Ten invitational.”
Notre Dame (-7.5) over USC
The Irish — riding a nine-game win streak with an average margin of victory greater than 32 points — took last year’s matchup against the Trojans, 48-20. Now remove Caleb Williams.
ARIZONA (+8.5) over Arizona State
The Sun Devils were picked to finish dead last in the Big 12 preseason poll. With one more win, they will be in the conference title game. With two more wins, they will be in the playoff. Arizona State, which has lost twice on the road this season, may not be mentally prepared for the rival in its way, the rival that has won back-to-back meetings.
ALABAMA (-11.5) over Auburn
If you recall an epic Iron Bowl, chances are it happened at Jordan-Hare Stadium. It has been 14 years since Cam Newton led the Tigers to their most recent win in Tuscaloosa, where no Iron Bowl since then has been decided by single digits. Coming off Alabama’s worst offensive performance in 20 years, Jalen Milroe will be at his best against a team he torched for 359 total yards last season.
SYRACUSE (+10.5) over Miami
No team on track for the playoff is more likely to stumble than the Hurricanes, who have struggled away from home. Most recently, Miami lost at Georgia Tech. Before that, the Hurricanes allowed 45 points at Louisville and trailed by 20 in the fourth quarter at Cal. The Orange (+350) are a live dog, with the nation’s leader in passing yards, Kyle McCord, guiding one of the best offenses Miami has seen all season.
PENN STATE (-24.5) over Maryland
The Nittany Lions are in with a win. James Franklin, the Terps’ former “head coach in waiting,” has repeatedly punished the school that ultimately wouldn’t commit to him, winning nine of the past 10 meetings, with six games decided by at least 24 points.
INDIANA (-28.5) over Purdue
An underwhelming win could damage the playoff hopes of the Hoosiers, who have one win against an FBS opponent with a winning record. Indiana hasn’t let up against inferior opponents yet — winning 10 games by an average of more than 30 points — and the Boilermakers (1-10) have already lost four games against top-10 teams by a combined score of 195-17.
Betting on College Football?
OREGON (-19.5) over Washington
Less than a year ago, the Huskies had the ball with a chance to even the score in the fourth quarter of the national championship game. This season, they are 0-4 on the road, losing the past three opportunities by a total of 67 points. Dan Lanning won’t allow the top-ranked Ducks to look ahead to the Big Ten title game. He is 0-3 against Washington — including Oregon’s only two losses last season — losing each game by three points.
Kansas State (+3) over IOWA STATE
This poor man’s version of the Big 12 enters the final week of the regular season with nine teams still in contention for the conference championship. Get your tiebreakers ready.
Best bets: Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, Indiana
This season: 100-94-1 (15-23-1)
2014-23 record: 1,272-1,206-30
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