Post sports gambling editor/producer Erich Richter is in his first season in the Bettor’s Guide.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Hold your nose.
Will Levis isn’t the most fun quarterback to bet on.
But Trevor Lawrence is far from healthy, and the Jaguars’ defense is a disaster.
When betting a favorite, you look for a running game to carry you to victory and, in theory, help you cover the spread in the fourth quarter.
That’s why the Jaguars are a fade ATS this weekend — they have the third-worst yards per carry average in the NFL this season (3.6).
Pro Football Focus grades their run blocking at the bottom of the league.
That, plus an injured quarterback and a team that won’t bow down in Week 18, tells me the Jaguars won’t walk all over Tennessee in this must-win matchup.
The Titans probably won’t win outright, but 3.5 is a fine number to back Mike Vrabel’s motivated bunch.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5) over New York Jets
It’s going to be ugly, but one team is playing well and hard, the other group has flights booked for St. Barts.
Expect Bill Belichick to put on a coaching display so good that Jets owner Woody Johnson will want to rescind his vote of confidence in Robert Saleh for 2024.
The only way to beat New England is through the air, which we know the Jets are mostly incapable of doing.
Betting on the NFL?
In the past three games, the Jets’ net yards per play (per play yards allowed minus gained) is minus-1.5, and New England’s is actually positive at 0.3.
The Jets packed it in. Back New England here as the run defense carries it to victory.
Last week: 2-0. Chiefs (W), Patriots (W)
2023 season: 16-16-2.
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