UFC Vegas 87 will be live this weekend from the APEX Center, headlined by a heavyweight bout between Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
The card is boldly positioned with tons of massive favorites and few underdogs that can really bark their way to a victory.
UFC Vegas 87 is so lopsided that an 11-leg parlay of all of the cards favorites would only pay out at 18/1 on FanDuel.
With only three fights with odds below -200 for the favorite, we are met with the daunting task of finding value on the card.
It’s something we should’ve done last week before getting too cute, knowing that Brandon Royval was value at the price but reading too much into a short-notice replacement spot.
The 0-2 showing brings our year-long profitability down to 5.46 units on the year and a 5-8 overall record.
We look to right the ship Saturday.
UFC Vegas 87 predictions
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
Thrust into a main event, Gaziev faces a proven veteran in Rozenstruik as a surprising favorite in this bout. Gaziev looks to have a shiny new object appeal to the UFC and bettors — given the price — as a favorite spot.
But I am hesitant to jump in on the Gaziev train, as he seems to storm his opponents early on, unapologetically throwing risk to the wind.
Rozenstruik is an excellent striker and — while he has been bonked many times — Francis Ngannou comes to mind.
Gaziev is 14-0 in his professional career but did lose two fights in his amateur career, so he’s not unbreakable. He could win, to be clear, but he shouldn’t be this big of a favorite in this spot against Rozenstruik.
As for a long shot, this fight will probably end in the first two rounds, as showcased by the odds. But if it gets past that two-round mark, it could be a slugfest between two tired fighters.
The fight to go to a decision is +800 on BetMGM, which has happened in two of Rozenstruik’s past six fights.
It’s a long shot but make small bets here, with betting options listed as follows.
PICKS: Rozenstruik ML (+150, .5u, BetMGM); Fight goes the distance (+800, .2u, Caesars); Rozenstruik by decision (18/1, .1u, BetMGM)
Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro
Talk about a fighter with all of the physical tools; Vitor Petrino looks like a budding star in the UFC light heavyweight division.
Petrino is a well-rounded fighter with boxing and grappling capabilities. Tyson Pedro is probably a UFC-average fighter for the division and a potential building block as a +260 underdog.
Pedro is solid enough as is and has only been finished one time in the first round in his MMA career.
The two have a common opponent, with Anton Turkalj having fought both. Turkalj lost via decision in a clear way to Petrino and was finished a few minutes into the first round against Pedro.
Pedro should be able to hold his own and avoid being finished in the first round, but staying afloat and winning are two different things entirely in MMA.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
Back Petrino with this same-game parlay.
PICK: Petrino moneyline + over 4.5 minutes (+100, DraftKings)
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