Ukraine desperate to keep Trump onside while saving its sovereignty

Ukrainian officials have spent the weekend scrambling to make up lost ground when it comes to talks with the U.S. over a peace plan to end the war with Russia, with Kyiv having to tread a fine line between showing the U.S. it’s willing to engage in discussions, while anxious to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials were held in Switzerland over the weekend after it emerged last week that Russia and the White House had held secret discussions and had devised a 28-point peace plan which largely favored Moscow’s demands.

The plan, which Ukraine had not participated in, included controversial conditions, including that Ukraine make territorial and military concessions by handing over the eastern Donbas region and reducing its army by 50%, as well as other proposals that crossed Ukraine’s “red lines.”

While media reports about the “peace plan” were initially met with a grim silence by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his European allies, some analysts said it amounted to a capitulation to Russia’s maximalist territorial demands.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Kyiv to respond to the plan by Thursday and Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled his approval of the plan, saying it formed the “basis of a final peace settlement.”

Breaking his silence on the proposals last Friday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was facing one of the most difficult moments in its history and was essentially facing a choice between “losing its dignity or losing a key partner,” referring to the U.S.

Trump turned the screws on Saturday, posting on Truth Social that Ukraine had shown “zero gratitude” for the U.S.’ peace efforts, adding an extra layer of presidential pressure to talks held between the U.S and Ukraine on Sunday.

While giving few details away, the discussions, which involved U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and a Ukrainian delegation led by Zelenskyy’s top aide Andriy Yermak, appear to have gone well. Rubio told reporters that both sides had made “tremendous progress” with negotiators having drawn up an “updated and refined peace framework” that would be worked on this week.

While Ukraine may have accepted that NATO membership is unlikely (and this is one of Russia’s key demands) this means that post-war security guarantees are crucial for Kyiv.

Ukraine has also pushed back on ceding partially occupied Ukrainian territory to Russia and its European allies fearing that Russia would only re-group and stage another invasion in future to capture more of Ukraine. Kyiv has repeated its stance that it needs a “just and lasting peace” and not an agreement that won’t stand the test of time.

Asked about U.S.-Ukraine security guarantees being included in the document, Rubio was vague but told reporters on Sunday:

“I think we all recognize that part of getting a final end to this war will require for Ukraine to feel as if it is safe and it is never going to be invaded or attacked again. So that’s clearly something that has to be discussed. I think we’ve made substantial progress on that and other points.”

Rubio conceded that the progress of talks with Ukraine was contingent on Russia’s approval, stating: “No matter what we came up with today, obviously, we now have to take what we come up with, if we can reach that agreement with the Ukrainian side to the Russian side, that’s another part of this equation. They have to agree to this in order for this to work.”

On Monday, Trump appeared to question progress in talks, posting on Truth Social, “Is it really possible that big progress is being made in Peace Talks between Russia and Ukraine??? Don’t believe it until you see it, but something good just may be happening,” he said.

For his part, Zelenskyy said the talks were “substantive” and said on social media on Monday that, “right now, it is crucial that every joint action with our partners is throughly thought out. All decisions must be doable in order to ensure lasting peace and guaranteed security … Together, we will certainly safeguard our shared interests and our people.”

Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker, told CNBC Monday that he hoped the latest talks would be fruitful but that security guarantees were “absolutely vital.”

“There are some things in this proposal [peace plan] which are unacceptable for Ukraine, there are some things which should be changed but, in general, finally we have a framework and we should work on it and improve it and that’s diplomacy,” Goncharenko told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

Aside from security guarantees, other red lines for Ukraine related to the proposal, in the original 28-point plan, that its armed forces hand over parts of the Donbas region, including several large, fortified cities, that they still control.

“I think this is something that’s unacceptable for Ukraine because we can’t just leave our people,” Goncharenko said.

“The freezing of the conflict, the peace deal should be reached on the current [front] line, that is something which has been said many times and I think we need to stick to this,” he said.