We’ve got a pair of teams hanging on by dear life in the NFC playoff race headlining “Sunday Night Football” this week.
The Vikings (5-8) have fallen victim to a juggernaut NFC North while Dallas (6-6-1), still just two games out of the NFC East lead, has won three of its past four games.
At first glance, the 6.5-point line reflects two clubs trending in opposite directions: This Cowboys offense has carved up the NFL all season, posting the NFL’s third-highest scoring mark at 29.3 points per game, all while the Vikings have spent the campaign onboarding J.J. McCarthy.
Minnesota finally saw its due last week by beating up on the disenfranchised Commanders 31-0. It was the Vikings’ most complete performance of the season thanks to their defense, which forced three turnovers and swallowed up Jayden Daniels to allow just 78 passing yards.
If there is any distinguishing identity to the Vikings, it’s that they can win games by shrinking the field.
The Vikings have relinquished just 21.6 points per game and rank No. 4 in fewest passing yards allowed. They’re impervious in the red zone with invasions succeeding at a third-overall lowest rate of 46.2 percent.
But what has made this unit most effective is its aggression; no team blitzes more than the Vikings. The constant pressure has capped completions of 20-plus yards at the league’s highest clip. Teams simply don’t have the time to develop deep concepts, and that plays right against Dak Prescott’s strength.
This being his toughest test of the season, Prescott walks into this game with interceptions in five of his last six games. The Cowboys lost the ball three times to Detroit in their 44-30 defeat last week despite outgaining them.
It’s been Christmas all season long for opposing offenses against this charitable Dallas secondary. It’s gifted the most passing yards and sits No. 31 in third-down and red-zone defense. If you can cross midfield against the Cowboys, you’re likely seeing some reward.
Betting on the NFL?
The Vikings haven’t sustained any consistency with their attack, and Justin Jefferson’s production has regressed significantly. I don’t think they need to light up the scoreboard, however, sustained drives are enough to stay competitive.
Public betting reports are reflecting heavy public love on Dallas, but in the NFL, the logical outcome doesn’t play out and a touchdown is a big spread.
THE PLAY: Vikings +6.5 (-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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