The Louisville Cardinals are among the nation’s biggest surprise teams.
In Jeff Brohm’s first season, his Cardinals are 8-1 (5-1 ACC) and ranked No. 11 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
If this year were the first year of the 12-team CFP bracket, rather than next year, the 2023 Cardinals would be a playoff team.
What a world.
Conversely, Virginia is struggling in Tony Elliott’s second year. While the Cavaliers notched a surprising upset victory over Drake Maye and North Carolina, they still haven’t won a second FBS game.
The Cavs do keep most games close. Four of their seven losses have been one-possession losses, and they’re 6-2 against the spread (ATS) and 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
So, after a gross 38-point loss to Georgia Tech, can Virginia get off the mat and cover another big spread against one of the ACC’s best?
Virginia vs Louisville prediction
(7: 30 p.m. ET. ESPN)
I was buying Louisville at the beginning of the season, primarily because the Cardinals won the schedule lottery. They were gifted one of FBS’s easiest schedules.
But the Cardinals have taken care of business against bad teams and surprised against the few good teams on their schedule.
Aside from their weird letdown loss to Pitt in Week 7 – where they lost despite outgaining the Panthers 430 to 288 because they fumbled five times – the Cardinals have allowed less than 15 points per game on average. They held Notre Dame to only 20 points and 6-3 Boston College to 28.
The front seven has played spectacularly. The Cardinals are among the nation’s elite rush defenses, ranking top-five nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, top 10 in yards per carry allowed and top 15 in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Led by defensive end Ashton Gillotte, the sneaky athletic defensive line ranks sixth nationally in Line Yards, sandwiched between Michigan and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, linebacker TJ Quinn has stepped up with 18 run stops and nine tackles for loss, ranking among the top 10 ACC players in both stats.
Gillotte, Quinn and the Cardinals held all-world Notre Dame running back Audric Estime to 20 yards on 10 carries. It was the lowest single-game rushing yard total of Estime’s 25-game career when he received at least six carries.
While the Cardinals have stepped up and dominated at the point of attack, missed assignments in the secondary still need to be solved – it was a big problem last season, and they rank 84th nationally in Passing Explosiveness allowed and 80th in 20-plus yard passing plays allowed this year.
Also, it’s surprising that Louisville’s pass rush numbers are average.
Therefore, if you want to beat Louisville, you need your quarterback to step up and make big passes down the field.
Pitt’s Christian Veilleux made enough plays to beat Louisville (7.7 yards per attempt, two touchdowns), while Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman failed that test (6.7 yards per attempt, three interceptions).
Virginia can’t run the ball anyway, entering this game ranking sub-90th in Rush Success Rate and sub-100th in EPA per Rush. The Cavs average 3.1 yards per attempt.
So, the fate of this game is on the Virginia quarterback’s shoulder, who will spend plenty of time digging the Cavaliers out of passing downs (second- or third-and-longs).
Unfortunately, we don’t know which quarterback will start.
The Cavs have swapped between Tony Muskett and Anthony Colandrea this season.
Muskett started last week but suffered an ankle injury midway through the start and is listed as “questionable” on the injury report.
For what it’s worth, Colandrea is probably the better quarterback for this particular game. He’s more turnover-prone, but it’s because he’s willing to step up and throw the ball downfield – Colandrea has 500 more intended air yards and double the 20-plus yard attempts than Muskett.
As a result, Muskett has a higher completion rate and a lower turnover worthy play rate, but Colandrea’s recorded more EPA.
Against Louisville, I’d rather have the guy that tries to sling it over the top.
But can we actually trust Colandrea and UVA to put up points behind this gunslinging quarterback? Louisville has 10 interceptions and has dropped five more, both top 30 marks nationally, while Colandrea has thrown six interceptions on passes past the sticks.
I’m going to say no.
Betting on College Football?
Plus, there’s still a chance that Muskett starts, which would hurt Virginia’s chances of hanging with Louisville more. He’s also somewhat turnover-prone but only averages a 5.2-yard average depth of target and checks in with a negative EPA per Dropback mark, the perfect combination for getting crushed by the Cardinals’ defense.
And if he’s still partially injured on a short week, it’s a death sentence.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals should be able to run the ball at will against a Virginia defensive front that’s sub-120th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and EPA per Rush allowed.
Louisville likes to feed lead back Jawhar Jordan. The Cardinals rush the ball at a top 25 rate nationally (43.5%) and rank bottom 25 in seconds per play, while Jordan ranks sixth among FBS running backs in yards per carry (7.1).
So, what does this all mean from a handicapping perspective?
I suspect Virginia’s offense crashes, with Colandrea and/or Muskett trying to, and failing to, force the ball downfield on passing downs. Meanwhile, Louisville should establish their slow-paced, rush-heavy offense easily, controlling the ball and the clock for 60 minutes.
I thought about betting the Under, but Colandrea’s turnover issue is the problem – short fields for Louisville could sink a 50.5-point Under.
I thought about betting on Virginia, given a potentially ugly game script and the fact that Louisville is in a look-ahead spot with a road game to Miami on deck. But the schematic matchup is too ugly — I’d rather bet on big underdogs who can move the ball on the ground.
I also considered betting Louisville, which is very close to clinching a spot in the ACC Championship Game. However, laying a three-score spread with a slow-paced, rush-heavy team on a short week is challenging, especially considering Virginia’s ATS success this season.
However, I don’t mind Virginia’s Team Total Under 14.5 points, available at a relatively cheap -113 price at FanDuel Sportsbook. Bill Connelly’s SP+ model projects UVA for 12 points in this matchup.
UVA will be behind the sticks all night, and I don’t trust either Colandrea or Muskett to exploit the minor weakness in Louisville’s secondary.
Plus, the Cavs will have limited opportunities with how Lousiville controls the time of possession.
The Cardinals have held five of their eight opponents to less than two touchdowns this season, and they’ve held their past two opponents (Duke and Virginia Tech) to a combined three points.
Expect more of the same on Thursday night and wager accordingly.
Virginia vs. Louisville pick
Virginia Team Total Under 14.5 (-113, Caesars Sportsbook)
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