With the best record in the AL, the Yankees begin a nine-game West Coast road trip on Friday.
Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are fighting neck-and-neck in the AL MVP race, and the pitching staff owns the best ERA in MLB at 2.92.
Meanwhile, Mets fans are simply looking for anything to inspire hope during an ugly start to the season.
Top pitching prospect Christian Scott will make his fourth career start on Friday, which could potentially be a cause for optimism.
Giants at Mets
Scott is off to an uneven start to his MLB career, holding an ERA of 4.32 after a tough outing in Miami last Friday.
There are plenty of positives to point to that suggest Scott can succeed at the big-league level this season.
He owns a 3.14 expected ERA (xERA), and a fielding independent (FIP) of 3.55. His four-pitch mix rates out quite well, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 103.
His high-quality arsenal correlates with a strong 4.25 K/BB ratio. It seems entirely valid to believe the highly touted 24-year-old will bounce back against a depleted Giants lineup.
Despite some key absences, San Francisco has found success recently against weak pitching staffs, but it seems unlikely that will continue much longer.
Without Jung Hoo Lee, Michael Conforto and Nick Ahmed, the Giants lineup becomes a softer target.
And while Scott looks to be a much better starter than his ERA suggests, the opposite seems to be true for Kyle Harrison, who owns an xERA of 4.11 and a FIP of 3.86.
Scott should prove to be the far superior pitcher to Harrison this season.
Two months from now, Scott would likely be a far heavier favorite in this game, and now is the time to back him before he is entirely respected by oddsmakers.
Recommendation: Mets to win first five innings (-145, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Yankees at Padres
Two of the hottest starters in the majors will square off in the series opener as Carlos Rodon takes on Yu Darvish and the Padres.
Rodon has pitched to an ERA of 2.45 over his last three starts with a WHIP of only 1.03.
He’s been hit quite hard in those outings though, allowing a hard-hit rate of 46 percent and an expected batting average (xBA) of .259.
On the season, Rodon has allowed an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, which is the second-highest mark among qualified starters.
Even without Xander Bogaerts, the Padres still project to have a better-than-average offense.
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They have a weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 105 over the last two weeks, and have hit to soft contact just 13 percent of the time.
The Yankees, who stayed hot versus a high-quality Mariners staff this week, get another formidable challenge in Darvish.
But their 132 wRC+ over the last two weeks ranks first in MLB and their 127 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers this season also tops the list.
So while Darvish has dominated two elite offenses (Dodgers, Braves) over his last two starts, neither has crushed righties quite like the Bronx Bombers have this season.
Both of these pitchers seem to be getting a little too much market respect for their recent dominance.
Friday’s matchup presents a good opportunity to fade both starters as they take on two offenses in elite form.
Recommendation: Over 7.5 total runs (-105, BetMGM)
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